Intermountain SP Cab forward

[ek2000]

Update from IM on the Cab forward release

"I would expect the N Scale Cab Forward to be in the mid to late-Summer time period.  Perhaps it will come earlier but each year we see delays during and after Chinese New Year, which is mid-February in 2018.  It typically takes them several weeks to get back into full production and resume shipments."

[ek2000]

I was inquiring with a dealer about the availability of road #4294 who in turn checked with IM and it looks like there are about 80 of them available (road #4294) after factoring all preorders currently in. Such precise figures make it seem that production of this model is underway. If anyone else had made inquiries on this model and have updates, please share.

[Rossford Yard]

I have always been unnaturally obsessed by sales numbers in MRR.  IM has always been very open about how much of each thing they sell.  Still, amazed now to hear that 80 of each road number (or at least one road number) have or will be made.  I am going to guess that would be only 5-20% of the amount pre-ordered, and assume each their road numbers made 400-1600 units each.

Is there anything significant about road number 4294, like being used later in excursion service that would cause it to be made in bigger numbers?  Just asking.

[Mark W]

Is there anything significant about road number 4294, like being used later in excursion service that would cause it to be made in bigger numbers?  Just asking.

4294 is the only AC-12 that survives today, preserved at the California Railway Museum.  A lot of modelers, myself included, tend to gravitate toward surviving road numbers on special units.  I'm sure Athearn produced/sold way more 4014 Big Boy's than the other road numbers. 

[ek2000]

I'd imagine IM may stick more closely to pre orders this being the second run (or third?). 4294 being a surviving example is very likely to be the most in demand so IM may have made the most units in this road number. 80 units after pre order for this road number is not a huge number should sell out pretty quickly.

Drawing a parallel on MRR sales/production counts of another manufacturer, I once counted (a month or 2 back) 128  BLI P3 M1's that MBKlein had in stock. They still have 80+ in stock as of a couple of days back. At one point, MBK had 400 BLI ES44's in stock after a couple of weeks they went on sale. They still have close to 250. Looking at these numbers, IM may not be in a bad spot.

[Englewood]

I know there were at least two previous runs. As I already have 5 cab forwards, I didn't order one from this run. However, if I find one of those 4294s for sale...

[Rossford Yard]

I'd imagine IM may stick more closely to pre orders this being the second run (or third?). 4294 being a surviving example is very likely to be the most in demand so IM may have made the most units in this road number. 80 units after pre order for this road number is not a huge number should sell out pretty quickly.

Drawing a parallel on MRR sales/production counts of another manufacturer, I once counted (a month or 2 back) 128  BLI P3 M1's that MBKlein had in stock. They still have 80+ in stock as of a couple of days back. At one point, MBK had 400 BLI ES44's in stock after a couple of weeks they went on sale. They still have close to 250. Looking at these numbers, IM may not be in a bad spot.

Took a look, and all the heritage schemes have 20-30 left, while the main roads, NS, UP, etc. are nearly sold out.  That would suggest that modelers tend not to buy the "one off" schemes, to keep their fleets more realistic looking.  (How often do you see a train with 2-4 heritage units on the front) Perhaps BLI hasn't made it to collector status, maybe?  Or, collecting MT freight cars at $25 a pop is easier than locos at $250 a pop?

[ek2000]

Took a look, and all the heritage schemes have 20-30 left, while the main roads, NS, UP, etc. are nearly sold out.  That would suggest that modelers tend not to buy the "one off" schemes, to keep their fleets more realistic looking.  (How often do you see a train with 2-4 heritage units on the front) Perhaps BLI hasn't made it to collector status, maybe?  Or, collecting MT freight cars at $25 a pop is easier than locos at $250 a pop?

Yes the paint scheme and road numbers make a huge diff and I think BLI has a tendency to overproduce going by the blow out sales on their diesels. That said I wouldnt mind a fantasy daylight cab forward. BLI has annoinced this in HO and I know Lionel made them in O.

[Rossford Yard]

Yes, I agree.  Part of my musings, while not interested in a cab forward at all, was how imperative it is to pre-order for locos I might want.  From this thread, I presume 4294 and its 80 extra locos is large, while whatever road numbers are run, might be smaller, and thus only 20 extra locos, perhaps.  If MBK is one of six big distributors, they might get 3-4 extra (or given their model, they might take most of the 20....not sure)

For most locos, I presume the total sales might be 60% first run, 30% second run, 10% third run.  At least, John Armstrong once opined that 80% of a supply of any loco/rolling stock sells in the first month.  Can't imagine that pre-orders reduces that ratio.