The recession and N scale...

[asarge]

Sometimes I wonder if the same 3 or 4 people post these same type threads every few months under different user names just to see how many people make ridiculous comments that they can then make fun of. And as usual it works beyond what they ever expected.

Guess what, all is NOT well in Model Railroad Land. Not in N, not in HO, not in O, not in any. Matter of fact it's pretty much the same in most if not all hobbies. Is it a conspiracy? Well no, unless you want to count the Chinese Government's decision to more closely watch who they give the low or no cost loans too.

The reality is that over the last few years, more and more people are being asked to work harder for the same or less money. When you look at the pitiful increase in wages people have had over the last few years and the sizable increase in costs in the last year or so, you see the disposable income shrinking.  Now I know that nobody on this forum suffers from those symptoms because we all make great money and besides, we all keep getting told that people spend more on their hobby in a recession. NOT ANYMORE. While we may not think the macro-issues affect us or shouldn't affect the hobby, the reality is they very much do. When people have to pay more to put gas in their cars, more for food, more for insurance, more for kids school supplies, more for vacation, it leaves alot less for hobby's and that keeps newbies out of the hobby. Without them the pool of existing model railroaders shrinks, the less people to buy the less gets sold, the less get's sold, the less get's produced.

[DKS]

Guess what, all is NOT well in Model Railroad Land. Not in N, not in HO, not in O, not in any. Matter of fact it's pretty much the same in most if not all hobbies. Is it a conspiracy? Well no, unless you want to count the Chinese Government's decision to more closely watch who they give the low or no cost loans too.

The reality is that over the last few years, more and more people are being asked to work harder for the same or less money. When you look at the pitiful increase in wages people have had over the last few years and the sizable increase in costs in the last year or so, you see the disposable income shrinking.  Now I know that nobody on this forum suffers from those symptoms because we all make great money and besides, we all keep getting told that people spend more on their hobby in a recession. NOT ANYMORE. While we may not think the macro-issues affect us or shouldn't affect the hobby, the reality is they very much do. When people have to pay more to put gas in their cars, more for food, more for insurance, more for kids school supplies, more for vacation, it leaves alot less for hobby's and that keeps newbies out of the hobby. Without them the pool of existing model railroaders shrinks, the less people to buy the less gets sold, the less get's sold, the less get's produced.

Well, it's certainly easy enough to state the obvious; a major recession such as the one we're experiencing now will affect all hobbies. To suggest, however, that it affects some scales more than others, as has been done in this thread, is just a tad silly. As we move out of the recession (unless we're in it for good, which is doubtful), we'll start seeing more positive signs in N as well as all of the other scales. The economy pretty much creates a level playing field; or, to adopt another metaphor, all of the scales will rise when the tide comes in.

[Dave V]

I think the big question is why we have to rehash the same topic over and over with the same cast of characters.  It's like the obligatory N scale PRR K4 thread that seems to be required every 3-4 months.  Nothing ever changes and the same people complain and then shun any offered solutions.

The internet has enabled unprecedented capacity to whine across thousands of miles in an instant.

In the meantime, there is some amazing modeling being done both by the regulars here and by some of the recent inductees.  Just gotta sift through these manufacturer bashes.

[eric220]

I move that this thread is a) political in nature and b) run its course and no longer providing for constructive discussion. Can I get a second from the mods?

[Flatrat]

I'm just starting to experiment with n scale model trains again after many years. The recession has been hard on everything and everybody. I've been modelling in large scale for the last five years and have heard doom and gloom with some suppliers in those scales. Some big manufacturers and some retailers have cut back and St. Aubin's closed their doors in April and manufacturers seem to be selling directly.

What changes have you all seen in N scale suppliers?

What do you folks see as the future in N scale modeling?

My original post*************

Hey everybody!!!! I started this thread because I heard Railwire was the best place to go for good information on N scale and was dipping my toe back in to N scale after years of modeling in 1:20 and 1:29 to simply ask if people felt there were more or less offerings in N scale these days and if they felt the product offerings were getting better and if the engines were performing better since the last time I tried to model in N scale in the 1980's the engines ran like S--T! It's no conspiracy. I'm not some troll lurking on the N scale sites just to stir up trouble and periodically posting this question just to get everyone's blood pressure up.

I think the recession has affected some scales more than others Dave. When the cheapest engine in G scale costs at least 200 dollars, a cheap piece of rolling stock costs 40 bucks, and the price of one piece of G scale flex track costs as much as a half dozen pieces of N scale track then...yes...to me, the recession has affected my purchasing. Maybe one reason we're seeing large scale retailers like St. Aubins go out of business. It's the sole reason I've ventured back into n scale. I discovered I could build an entire N scale layout for roughly the price it would cost to buy the additional track I needed to pursue my garden layout plans. It seemed like a good time to experiment again with N scale. I don't know the demographics of n scale but when I visit the local G scale gatherings in my area I always feel like the poor, young boy. Large scale seems to be more the realm of white haired guys who retired with lots of cash. Maybe they're not spending as much as they used to until their stock funds start going back up.

I would like to thank everyone for their perpspectives on N scale modeling in 2012, gleaned the info I was looking for, I am pleasently suprised with the new engines i have recently purchased, I think things are improving in N scale from what i experienced in the 1980's, and now SINCERELY wish that you all ignore this thread and just let it die.

Please.

Thanks,
Scott

[asarge]

Well, it's certainly easy enough to state the obvious; a major recession such as the one we're experiencing now will affect all hobbies. To suggest, however, that it affects some scales more than others, as has been done in this thread, is just a tad silly. As we move out of the recession (unless we're in it for good, which is doubtful), we'll start seeing more positive signs in N as well as all of the other scales. The economy pretty much creates a level playing field; or, to adopt another metaphor, all of the scales will rise when the tide comes in.

Exactly, change is the only constant. Things will change before long and then it will get better. I know people get impatient, especially dealers. But things will get better. You may not like what gets announced and so to you the model railroad world will still suck. But from a larger perspective it may or may not be so bad.

[Rossford Yard]

Asarge,

As an LHS guy, I suppose your comments would carry the most weight, although we might have another LHS or online retailer with a different experience than you.  Atlanta is still doing well by most accounts over other cities, and some may have a greater decline.

But maybe you can fill in some real numbers, too.  From memory, the biggest drop in loco sales came about 2001 in another recession.  That one prompted the end of the big runs with stuff on the shelf mentality by the mfg.  In MR, Tony's (I think, yellow page ad with advertorial) told us that loco runs in HO dropped from 20,000 to about 4,000 each.  Of course, not sure how long it took for those 20K to sell out, vs the nearly immediate sell out of 4K.

So, maybe the real question isn't to belly ache about less product available now (although I think that is debatable) but whether this deep recession will have big long term affects in how MRR does, such as was sort of posted in the original question.

And, to respond more directly to that, I don't see a big difference in motors since I got in N in 1990.  They made a leap then, making N scale trains a joy to run, and are only nominally better now, Atlas slow speed motor introduction notwithstanding.  of course, DCC was a big introduction in all scales, and I suppose some would complain it took longer to come to N, for size reasons.

I see a continuous dribble of new loco styles each year.  And I see a bigger continuous drip in rolling stock (passenger and freight cars) and structures.  Certainly N is following HO in the trend to more detailed and expensive cars, Trainman notwithstanding.  I am not sure what this says about N as a market.  As noted, G is hugely expensive, only for white haired guys with money.  I wonder if anyone considers cost savings on a scale basis.  Certainly N has potential, if you believe that smaller scales fit well in smaller spaces in smaller, less affluent homes.

And frankly, I don't know that I have seen this trend change at all, other than perhaps minor slow downs from China.  Does this suggest the mfgs are riding the older, more established modelers and ignoring the newbs?  That is the fear, if not the reality. That said, they still come out with numerous box cars, which are the cheapest things to make out there, and Trainman is a nod in the right direction. But, just looking at Atlas, trash and 89' flats and street lamps aren't the type of stuff aimed at newbs.

Just some thoughts.

[VonRyan]

One thing i'd like to note, Even though buying new HO is more expensive than N, buying Second-Hand N is more expensive than HO because MT and their "collectibles" thus dealers at train shows think that any old N scale rolling stock by Kadee/Early-MT is now worth 10-20 and yet they're 10-30 years old. I've managed to find a few dealers who do sell N scale at proper second-hand prices (I.E. $7-10 and the occasional $5 a car and that's with truck mounted MT couplers), but average prices for second hand stock in HO is 10 at the high end, with the average around $5. This is because all the collectable HO stuff is either in Brass from the Orient, or were in very limited runs related to the NMRA, thus they stick close to their parent organization(s).

Of course this is just my own observation and even though i more often have no money than any money, one might ask why i don't pull stakes and move to HO, well i've my Grandfather and limited space in the basement back in 1998 as well as the fact that i'm not one for very much change.

Now since i'm young and have yet to see much of anything, i'll shut up and go away and mess with my second-hand stock. 

-Cody F.

[John]

Well, I think we have covered this pretty well again ..   I think its a great time to be a model railroader - we have lots of models to choose from, prices, while higher than before, still aren't as bad as some other hobbies .. it probably won't go any lower - so the time to complete the fleet might take a little longer. But, I've found most of us have way too much stuff anyway ..

So, lets move on to something else ...