The recession and N scale...

[Scottl]

I would agree with what several have posted.  It seems to me that there has never been as much n scale product as there is now, and the quality and range of products is very good to excellent for the most part.   There is no doubt the economic times have affected companies and modellers alike, but beautiful new models keep emerging.  The demise of bricks and mortar retailers has been in so many areas that I don't mind having to buy things through the mail.  To compensate, the resources available online to seek opinions and feedback are radically better than they have ever been and that compensates for a lack of tactile shopping experience considerably.

For my part, time is a major limitation and I have found that I tend to get buried in time-intensive modelling projects that are actually quite moderate in cost.  Scenery and kitbashing make a $50 purchase go a long ways.  If I was a RTR collector, I suspect I would be hitting a wall of my own financial resources and probably looking at the industry outputs with more concern but I buy a few locos and cars a year and still seem to have more than I can run on my layout. 

Scott

[Rossford Yard]

Strange but true, layout building is less expensive than collecting!  There was one old saying that you couldn't do both at the same time, and I find that is true.  I have spent a several thousand so far this year in getting my new layout started.  Most of that was buying Atlas C55 track and turnouts because of the shortage scare (naturally came to light on these boards just after my commitment use C55)  hated to spend that money for track work that might be a year off, but didn't want to take that chance.  Still have lots of structures, scenery, etc. so spending should slow way down, and let the CC catch up.

[Scottl]

True, track is a big expense.  I was lucky this time to recycle my old turnouts and have been slowly accumulating more as I can.  Collectively though, 25 turnouts and the track is a big investment.

[kalbert]

On every model railroad site, you always get shouted down by the same response. There is no problem.

Maybe I'm not following what the problem is. There isn't a problem, just change. Lots of people confuse change with problem, I do all the time. Change is always met with resistance. Sometimes it's bad, most of the time it's just different. We have more N scale items available to us than we have ever had, and it's better quality (and in some cases better detail), but the method of delivery has changed. More and more people shop in ways other than heading uptown to the LHS, and they are doing this for a variety of reasons. It's not wrong or broken, but it is different, and not everybody has to like it, but most people will become assimilated to it. Just wait until Amazon get's their metropolitan distribution centers in place and are able to provide same day delivery to most of the US! Going out for mexican food for lunch today? Order a couple of cases of breath mints and Pepcid. They'll be waiting at your doorstep when you return.

[Rossford Yard]

It seems like every time I try to reuse an old turnout, it comes back to bite me.......

[Scottl]

Now someone tells me   

Next time, I am hand laying...

[Kisatchie]

The way I see it, there may be more money spent on N scale, but I bet there are less items being sold. That could mean that the same number of modelers are buying less at higher prices, or perhaps there are less N scale modelers throwing $$$ at the more expensive items.

I know I'm doing all I can to build up my freight car roster. I've been buying Intermountain kits on eBay like crazy lately, and I'm buying Micro-Trains trucks/couplers and body-mount couplers by the truckload (it seems). I also reserved 95 Atlas 70 ton ore cars. I find some interesting N scale freight cars on eBay every now and then, and M.B. Klein has some nice cars on clearance sale. I recently got a dozen BLMA gondolas cheap.


Hmm... cheap? Why doesn't
that surprise me...?

[mmagliaro]

Well, speaking only for myself, I find that this time around building a layout, I am more inclined to buy fewer, but better (i.e. more expensive) products.    That trend has probably been true for every layout and every  sub-section of a layout that I've worked on
since the 1980s.   For example, way back when, I would have been happy to buy a cheap $10 plastic structure kit, paint it, detail it,
and that would be it.   Now that I'm fussier, I might only buy the nice wood laser kits, if I buy a kit at all (as opposed to
scratchbuilding).  The laserkits are very spendy.
I will have fewer of them than I would have had in the past, but they are of higher quality.

Ditto on rolling stock.  In the past, I would buy old-generation Atlas, LL, etc, and put MT trucks on them.  Now, a Micro-Trains car
is the "bottom"  I will bother with, because I'm pursuing cars that are more and more accurate.
Again... I buy many fewer cars, and only ones that I am really interested in.   Or I might buy kits (like the nice Robert Ray
NP and SP&S cabooses).  But again, those are a lot pricier than a basic car.

Everybody has a fixed budget, well, except for the few who are truly "loaded".  That hasn't changed for me, although
I do have more disposable income than I had 20 years ago.  But I just spend it on fewer, higher-quality items.

Less is more.   Smaller layout, less "stuff", but better "stuff".    I don't know if that's good for the hobby or not.  But that's whay I find myself doing.

[Rossford Yard]

Kit,

I think we all need to be sure we don't let our limited anecdotal experiences color our view as to what's happening out there.  I do agree stuff is getting higher priced, and like MM, buy fewer but gooder stuff myself these days.

But, if the long time modelers are cutting back on purchases, but the spending is growing, according to that HIAA report, then where is it coming from?  Has to be new modelers, but only a guage on track sales would really tell us how many new layouts are getting built.

As reference, Sam Posey wrote in his book back about 2005 that Walthers sold 29 actual miles (or was it 129?) of HO flex track.  And, I thnk that was just their brand, not all others.  That is a lot of HO layouts, and we can presume nearly as many N, but only half the track due to size.  If we were all just collectors buying better stuff, track sales wouldn't be that big.

[Bluford Craig]

Kit,

I think we all need to be sure we don't let our limited anecdotal experiences color our view as to what's happening out there.  I do agree stuff is getting higher priced, and like MM, buy fewer but gooder stuff myself these days.

But, if the long time modelers are cutting back on purchases, but the spending is growing, according to that HIAA report, then where is it coming from?  Has to be new modelers, but only a guage on track sales would really tell us how many new layouts are getting built.

As reference, Sam Posey wrote in his book back about 2005 that Walthers sold 29 actual miles (or was it 129?) of HO flex track.  And, I thnk that was just their brand, not all others.  That is a lot of HO layouts, and we can presume nearly as many N, but only half the track due to size.  If we were all just collectors buying better stuff, track sales wouldn't be that big.

I have that book and found the reference. Is was in 2001 and 129 actual miles of HO track (11,223 scale miles.)
Craig
www.bluford-shops.com

[Rossford Yard]

Craig,

Thanks.  I thought it was 129 miles, but sounded like a heck of a lot.  And, if I recall, that was only Atlas track, which would be more used by beginners rather than older modelers upgrading their layouts or building new.

In HO, that is 681,000 of actual feet of track.  When you consider the average 4 X 8 HO layout might use 50' of track, that equates to 13,622 new HO layouts per year.  Even if we presume half of that track is for layout expansion of existing modelers layouts, there are still over 6300 new layouts being built, or close to 125 per state, on average.

If N is about half the market of HO, maybe there are 6000 new N scale layouts and maybe 3000 new N scalers starting new layouts.  Of course, I know of two (mine and Denver Road Dougs) that are experienced modelers rebuilding in a new home.

And, wholesale quantities have continued to rise from the low of 2008 and are now back at $1.4Bil annually for MRR.  I won't say the recession is over, but I see no reason to think the hobby dies out with us.  I do see kids at train shows.  Amazing, in that I would hardly be caught dead at one in my teens!

I think a lot of layouts are being built out there.

[Bluford Craig]

I doesn't actually say what brand of HO track they are referring to. Remember Walthers is a major supplier of track in HO so they may be talking about their own line. Another number that what be easy for someone to come up with was how many sections of flex track they sold. That may be the source of the 129 mile number. I really doubt someone bothered to add up the lengths of all the #4 switches, #6 switches, bridge flex, 1" sections and so on in the THOUSANDS of track items in HO carried by Walthers. That 129 mile number is probably low. I agree track sales is a much better measure of the health of the hobby although you still would have to factor in sales slowed by production delays...

Craig
www.bluford-shops.com

[Zox]

I really doubt someone bothered to add up the lengths of all the #4 switches, #6 switches, bridge flex, 1" sections and so on in the THOUSANDS of track items in HO carried by Walthers.

If, as you suggest, the figure is for their own product? Total up the amount of HO rail they purchased from their supplier, and divide by two...

[Flatrat]

Reading some market reports on line recently by marketing and consulting firms they indicate that consumers are looking for bang for their buck as they have during other recessions. They are not pulling the trigger on new cars, new boats, expensive home improvements or new furniture or high dollar consumer electronics. Consumers seem to be spending money on improving that which they already own however, but with a tighter eye on return from their dollar to hours of enjoyment recieved from those dollars.
According to these reports, consumers are not dining out as much but seem to be spending more on cooking well and entertaining at home, exploring new hobbies like home brewing and winemaking. They appear to be pulling out and dusting off the old camping equipment, canoes, bicycles and purchasing new bicycle tires etc. to enjoy those hobbies that don't require much $$ each time they decide to use them.
I suspect they are searching their closets and pulling out things like camera equipment and old model trains. My friend works for one of the largest photography distributors in the country and he has for the last few years stated that their business is booming in many markets. Cameras, like model trains, require a certain amount of initial investment but after that the enjoyment hours to money spent modeling a layout or going out and taking photos drops precipitously. Good bang for your buck hobbies. I wonder if folks are revisiting model trains for these reasons [?]

For me it was switching scales for "bang for the buck". I hear people complain about the price of track in N scale but I just bought about enough track to do half of my new N scale layout for what two or three pieces of track would have cost me to pursue my garden scale layout plans. I recently bought an excellent running 2-8-0 spectrum engine for a  fraction of what most G scale locos cost that made me say "Wow! N scale locomotives run much better these days than they did years ago." A 12 dollar boxcar in N scale costs 40 dollars in G scale. I understand that "expensive" is in the eye of the beholder, holding the wallet and I'm certainly not a rich man but for me...N scale is my new Bang for the Buck. I wonder if other people may be giving N scale another look if so, more demand should drive the offerings in n scale up.

[Rossford Yard]

Flatrat,

I agree with the general premise of getting value.  However, I do know there was a resurgence in O a few years back as guys my age who had put away the trains finally decided to dabble in recreating their Lionel trains. 

That said, for any newcomers, if history repeats in other ways, N should gradually take over from HO because its smaller and you can do more, much like HO took over from O.  I am actually surprised at how well HO has held the 2-3.5X market share advantage over N.  It used to be that not being able to get stuff in N (at least all the stuff you needed for a great layout) was a problem.  Not at all true now, despsite constant "We (I) need XXX"

BTW, I had my "N scale runs great!" moment in 1990.  My old room mate had switched to N, but it never ran well enough for me.  When Kato and Atlas started releasing those locos around 1989, I switched immediately.