Have we hit the limit with rolling stock prices?

[Rossford Yard]

I don't mean to start any firestorm, but I noticed over the weekend, that the new N scale Atlas cement hoppers have been discounted to 30-35% off on multiple sites.  I bought several for my planned cement plant, as the promise of a big discount and a specific use allowed me to justify doing so.  However, I found it different that a new body style would be discounted widely to near wholesale prices so soon after release, and wonder if we as modelers have finally hit the limit on pricing.

Is this a one off?  Is it a function of new modelers not being able to afford them and veterans like most of us simply not willing to pay that much for what is essentially an upgraded model of the ones we probably have from IM or Atlas already (even if a slightly different model of the short covered hoppers? 

I am generally understanding of the problems the mfgs have.  I am sure they are just passing the big price increases from China and other things to us.  I genuinely wonder what will happen next.

I had similar feelings and only bought one of those beautiful new lumber center beams.  I love them, and need them (kind of, as I have several of lesser quality already) but will wait to buy any unless those prices come down.

I could also upgrade my coil car fleet, but again, at $48 for the new models, I won't.  At the national, I saw a re-run atlas discounted to $27, and the other new ones were slightly better, but I didn't need them enough to drop that cash.

Thoughts?

[ddeaton]

got a link for the hoppers you purchased? I am too new in the hobby to give you any thoughts yet.

[daniel_leavitt2000]

Old modelers are out of the picture. Younger people are not into building models. The market shrinks. Slow at first, then a fast collapse.

[basementcalling]

I don't mean to start any firestorm, but I noticed over the weekend, that the new N scale Atlas cement hoppers have been discounted to 30-35% off on multiple sites.  I bought several for my planned cement plant, as the promise of a big discount and a specific use allowed me to justify doing so.  However, I found it different that a new body style would be discounted widely to near wholesale prices so soon after release, and wonder if we as modelers have finally hit the limit on pricing.

Is this a one off?  Is it a function of new modelers not being able to afford them and veterans like most of us simply not willing to pay that much for what is essentially an upgraded model of the ones we probably have from IM or Atlas already (even if a slightly different model of the short covered hoppers? 

I am generally understanding of the problems the mfgs have.  I am sure they are just passing the big price increases from China and other things to us.  I genuinely wonder what will happen next.

I had similar feelings and only bought one of those beautiful new lumber center beams.  I love them, and need them (kind of, as I have several of lesser quality already) but will wait to buy any unless those prices come down.

I could also upgrade my coil car fleet, but again, at $48 for the new models, I won't.  At the national, I saw a re-run atlas discounted to $27, and the other new ones were slightly better, but I didn't need them enough to drop that cash.

Thoughts?

I got lucky on the new PD 2 bays from Atlas and found them 50% off on the wacked out MB Kleins website and pounced for a few at that price. I've also seen them at $41 on that same site, and more routinely around $33 on other places. I feel for anyone trying to create a unit train these days. The new Rapido RD4 coal hoppers come in at a price in the mid to high 30s, but the older - and to be fair far less detailed - version another manufacture is rerunning were pre order priced at or about $20. Rapido is now saying their future N scale offerings will have less detail. Is that a limit? Results are contaminated by their prototype selections and several offerings competing with other manufacturers products.

MT has the same issue. Older car bodies are still in the upper teens to mid 20s street price, but if you want a new 60', plate F boxcar or PS2, their prices are also north of $30. Lots of modelers have plenty of discretionary income, but the hobby has gotten harder to afford in large quantities. So have most things post Pandemic. Of course, manufacturers are offering more and more detail because customers demand it. Those Atlas hoppers come with printing on the truck sideframes, unheard of in N scale before. MT prices have always depended on the number of colors on the car.

But have we hit a limit? Maybe. I've noticed lately that the non sound engine offerings are selling out faster than sound. Granted the prices are very different, but if you still want an Atlas S4, Athearn F45, or even a Kato engine, a number of web retailers only have sound equipped units left to sell. I dont know the mix of sound and non sound units produced. Scale Trains is having no trouble selling both, but even on their site, if any older run units of engines are left, they are the sound equipped versions.

[Rossford Yard]

got a link for the hoppers you purchased? I am too new in the hobby to give you any thoughts yet.

I got mine from Yankee Dabbler, but what prompted the thread was checking Model Train Stuff sales and another site I had never heard of popped up on my Facebook Feed....Crazytrains?  Perhaps a scam (I wouldn't click) and just a very apt name.

Daniel,

I am not a doom and gloom to MR kind of guy.  It might shrink but I see lots of kids at train shows and even in ops sessions.  I met a 21 year old last week who was gaga about trains from Thomas, and is now through the college years when modeling usually takes a back seat, but wanting to get back in, as eager as I ever was, at least.  Granted, a small sample size for anything I notice around here, but hopefully representative.

I know from Paul Graff and others in the industry that sales slowed down in the 2000 recession and again in 2007 or so.  They don't publish the survey anymore, but the HIA group maintained for years that the entire industry kept sales numbers constant at about $420 Million (translates to almost a Billion at MSRP, which few pay.)  The lament then was that it was us old guys going for all the new tech, and a surge of retirees reliving their childhood by taking up Lionel trains a second time.  I doubt we will ever know true sales nor the numbers of both modelers and layouts.

That said, I was trying to be a bit more focused.  I think we all know prices of everything have squeezed all but the biggest budgets overall, and MR is not an actual spending necessity.  If this follows other price increases in the hobby, I suspect that $48 for common rolling stock (new tooling) will probably not go down, but it won't go up for almost a decade either.  I think it has been about 10 years since the 89 foot auto racks broke the $40, but you could rationalize you were effectively getting two cars.  Now we are pushing $50 for a 35 foot car, LOL.....not.

And again, I am not bashing our mfgs. I am sure they are charging as little as they can and still make a profit, but I just don't recall steep discounts so soon after the arrival of what should be a popular car.  (Other than Life Like years ago, and their pricing model was to set MSRP to match others, but they planned on selling some at full price, and they had enough margin in their model to discount over 50% if needed.

cheers

[chessie system fan]

The young teenage/early twenties modelers I know go cheap on rolling stock and drop big bucks on sound (and cameras and drones for railfanning).  That goes for HO and N.

Personally, I get squeamish above $25 per car (plus shipping), though if it's a must-have car I'd go higher. I bought a MT B&O PS-2 when those came out. I think that's the highest I've paid for a car so far.

[sirenwerks]

We passed the limit a while ago.

[basementcalling]

I got mine from Yankee Dabbler, but what prompted the thread was checking Model Train Stuff sales and another site I had never heard of popped up on my Facebook Feed....Crazytrains?  Perhaps a scam (I wouldn't click) and just a very apt name.


And again, I am not bashing our mfgs. I am sure they are charging as little as they can and still make a profit, but I just don't recall steep discounts so soon after the arrival of what should be a popular car.

cheers

I'm still suspicious of low prices from eBay sellers I've never used.

I think the MB Klein's pricing was a glitch function of their "corporate overlord" takeover by Hatton. I sure hope their pricing evens out. I like a great deal as much as anyone, but when the same car has different road names priced 15-20 dollars difference right next to each other on the same website, it makes me think they made a mistake @Ed Kapuscinski could have prevented. 

To be fair though, Bachmann is still using the inflated MSRP huge discount model for pricing, though there is no way I am paying 3x what I bought a 2-8-0 at for another one just because they put a sound decoder in it. To be transparent, I won't buy Bachmann unless I can test run the engine at a show or in a shop. I learned that lesson long ago.

[basementcalling]

Old modelers are out of the picture. Younger people are not into building models. The market shrinks. Slow at first, then a fast collapse.

Who you calling old, Daniel?  I'm well worn but still have a valid extended warrantee.

[Rossford Yard]

I got lucky on the new PD 2 bays from Atlas and found them 50% off on the wacked out MB Kleins website and pounced for a few at that price. I've also seen them at $41 on that same site, and more routinely around $33 on other places. I feel for anyone trying to create a unit train these days. The new Rapido RD4 coal hoppers come in at a price in the mid to high 30s, but the older - and to be fair far less detailed - version another manufacture is rerunning were pre order priced at or about $20. Rapido is now saying their future N scale offerings will have less detail. Is that a limit? Results are contaminated by their prototype selections and several offerings competing with other manufacturers products.

MT has the same issue. Older car bodies are still in the upper teens to mid 20s street price, but if you want a new 60', plate F boxcar or PS2, their prices are also north of $30. Lots of modelers have plenty of discretionary income, but the hobby has gotten harder to afford in large quantities. So have most things post Pandemic. Of course, manufacturers are offering more and more detail because customers demand it. Those Atlas hoppers come with printing on the truck sideframes, unheard of in N scale before. MT prices have always depended on the number of colors on the car.

But have we hit a limit? Maybe. I've noticed lately that the non sound engine offerings are selling out faster than sound. Granted the prices are very different, but if you still want an Atlas S4, Athearn F45, or even a Kato engine, a number of web retailers only have sound equipped units left to sell. I dont know the mix of sound and non sound units produced. Scale Trains is having no trouble selling both, but even on their site, if any older run units of engines are left, they are the sound equipped versions.

I perhaps should have put this in the N scale forum, as we are known for longer unit trains to take advantage of our space savings.

I am surprised at sound not selling, as per above when many think we are all upgrading our fleets.  And yes, I have a dozen sound engines.  Oddly enough, in op sessions, only a small percentage want the sound.  So, your experience may be quite correct.  And the good news from that is, perhaps it is new or less affluent modelers wanting in the hobby, but not willing or able to pay for the luxuries.  The Scale Trains situation probably confirms this.

I recall Sam Posey's book in about 2005 quoting Walthers as having sold 129 actual miles of HO track, which to me was a lot, given this was after the first MR recession in 2000.  Walthers also thought that their customers were typically in their mid 50's, i.e., peak earning years.  But, I digress.

There I go, expanding my own thread......

[basementcalling]

I perhaps should have put this in the N scale forum, as we are known for longer unit trains to take advantage of our space savings.

I am surprised at sound not selling, as per above when many think we are all upgrading our fleets.  And yes, I have a dozen sound engines.  Oddly enough, in op sessions, only a small percentage want the sound.  So, your experience may be quite correct.  And the good news from that is, perhaps it is new or less affluent modelers wanting in the hobby, but not willing or able to pay for the luxuries.  The Scale Trains situation probably confirms this.

I recall Sam Posey's book in about 2005 quoting Walthers as having sold 129 actual miles of HO track, which to me was a lot, given this was after the first MR recession in 2000.  Walthers also thought that their customers were typically in their mid 50's, i.e., peak earning years.  But, I digress.

There I go, expanding my own thread......

Keep it going. So far it's a good discussion vs a gripe session.

I am biased on sound, as I think N scale sound in diesel engines is the biggest rip off in the hobby. It's certainly the least prototypically accurate feature of a Rivet Counter engine outside of weight.     Sound equipped units sound nothing like what I hear standing track side because of the lack of bass, but even bells and whistles sound hollow to me. If I ever do sound, it would be as Lance Mindheim outlines on his website with operators wearing headphones. But as a teacher, I also can't justify the $100 premium price engines with sound equipped decoders command. I'll keep making anecdotal observations about sound vs non sound when I go on a late night click session through 15 or 20 pages of locomotive listings on Lombard's or MBK's websites.

I feel for anyone just starting in N scale. Finding affordable motive power is a challenge with short production runs. You can still get all the F units you want - if you are willing to pay the sound premium. Lots of BLI units sitting on the dead line on websites. And they have now started offering Stealth units without sound to try to increase sales. Hmmm.

[CRR Chase]

I think MB was just because of the take over (the move) . . not sure on others.

[mu26aeh]

Sound is fine in small doses.  A layout I operate regularly on has one participate that brings his sound equipped loco at level 125% volume (not sure how you get more than 100 but I digress).  This is a huge 3 level, mushroom style 20x40 if it stops there layout and it pierces your ears when you're on opposite ends of layout.  Last time he was asked by multiple people to turn off. 

Another one had 6-8 locos idling in the main yard for thru freights and I think I heard that prime mover for 3 or 4 days after in my head.  Both layouts are HO but think this can apply to any layout

[thomasjmdavis]

Sound is fine in small doses.  A layout I operate regularly on has one participate that brings his sound equipped loco at level 125% volume (not sure how you get more than 100 but I digress).  This is a huge 3 level, mushroom style 20x40 if it stops there layout and it pierces your ears when you're on opposite ends of layout.  Last time he was asked by multiple people to turn off. 

Another one had 6-8 locos idling in the main yard for thru freights and I think I heard that prime mover for 3 or 4 days after in my head.

My own take on sound is that it should be "scaled" although this is, of course, only an approximation.  Three feet in N scale is 480 scale feet. An N scale loco at 3' should have approximately the volume of a locomotive 480' away.  At 32 feet (the other end of the layout in a large-ish room), an N scale loco is a scale mile away- but when someone turns up the volume on their sound decoder, it sounds like it is 32' away.  Of course, most layouts compress space, in order to be able to fit multiple towns into a basement- and we logically should not hear a locomotive that is (supposedly) 5 miles away (or 500, depending on the layout). You should not be standing in downtown Chicago, and hear a locomotive in the suburbs, or Kansas City.

[lock4244]

I feel the cost of freight cars (everything really) is at the point that it could cause some folks to avoid the hobby altogether. Especially the newer generation. It's not just the increase in costs in China, but the continual and relentless devaluation of the dollar, along with the escalating cost of food, housing, clothing, energy, etc. A breaking point will be reached.

Where's my damned big MLW's?

To me, sound equipped models adds nothing but price to the equation with no tangible benefit. I know, lots of people like it, but not me. At all. I'm thankful it's not being forced on those that do not wish to partake by the manufacturers. What's that saying... just because you can do something doesn't mean that you should. Yup.

Metal wheels (not those old school Atlas and Con-Cor ones) and body mounted couplers are the zenith of development.