How do we go beyond "Reservations?"

[Maletrain]

I just don't see a problem with the reservation system.  We make reservations for hotel rooms; airline flights; train trips; dinners; and a host of other things.  Making them for models to be produced just doesn't seem to be a big deal to me.

The problem that you apparently aren't seeing is that we normally expect to get a hotel room, airplane flight, train seat, dinner, etc. when we reserve them, but we are learning that we often do not get n scale train models that we "reserve" order.  Or, we do not get them on the same time-frame that we expect or need them.

That hurts the "reservation" system.  Just like manufacturers, many hobby modelers have budgets.  If we tie-up our budget with reservations for things that are never built, then that means that other n scale things do not get purchased.  And, unused money sitting in a budget usually gets diverted to more immediate needs (often not n scale models).  So, when we don't know how long it will be before we get  a sizeable bill for something that we preordered, we tend to limit how much we have on preorder at any given time, so as not to get too many unschedulable expenses at the same time.  The more things that are preordered get delayed, the bigger this problem becomes.  That means that the preorder system is limiting its market, and I think by a substantial amount.  And, it is also hurting the overall n scale market.

The only thing that I have seen suggested that might help is the "transparancy" in communication about the manufacturing decision.  I would like to see the manufacturers' websites post the number of pre-orders they need to proceed and the count of the number that they have received to date. 

And, I think that pre-orders need some financial commitment - perhaps a 5% or 10% down that is refunded if the project does not proceed by a certain date, but is not refunded if the project results in an item for sale within a stated time-frame.

I think those measures would reduce the risk to both manufacturers and consumers.

But, as things stand now, I think that manufacturers that have a reputation for cancelling preorders and/or delaying deliveries for years are creating their own death spirals.  By doing those things, they are diminishing the number of customers who are willing to preorder from them and increasing the number of people who will cancel their preorders during the long delays. 

And one final thought: a large fraction of the people engaged in this hobby are nearly as old as the equipment we model.  Waiting 5 to 10 years for a particular item to be delivered after it is announced is often a substantial fraction of the customers' remaining lifetimes.  I am sure that there are Pennsy modelers who died while waiting for the M1a to come out.

[Rossford Yard]

The problem that you apparently aren't seeing is that we normally expect to get a hotel room, airplane flight, train seat, dinner, etc. when we reserve them, but we are learning that we often do not get n scale train models that we "reserve" order.  Or, we do not get them on the same time-frame that we expect or need them.


You have obviously never been bumped off an airline flight or from a hotel room you had very much reserved. Of course, the difference is those infrastructure and products pre-exist, and are a commodity.  The mfg has to make tooling, set up factory runs, etc.

And, tell me, when does any one model train become a true "need" other than want?

As a few others, I defend the reservation system because I figure those in the biz know more than I, and if they say it keeps them in biz, I can believe it (as a small biz owner myself)  I also see what it does for our product selection, rather than only the inconveniences it sometimes causes.  Give something to get something, et al.  I am frankly amazed at all the N Scale stuff we have gotten more than I am dismayed at the few we haven't.

[Maletrain]

You have obviously never been bumped off an airline flight or from a hotel room you had very much reserved.

Apparently, we just don't agree on what is a problem.  When airlines and hotels "bump" people to whom they have given reservations, that is a problem.  For both the people who got bumped and then for the company that bumped them, because of the negative publicity and even legislation to deal with the aggravation that was caused.  So, that kind of behavior does have negative consequences in the contexts that you mentioned, as well as in the N scale manufacturing world.  So, I do not see those things as non-problems that somehow excuse the problems that I discussed in my post.

I am surprised that I did not get any negative responses to my thoughts about making a small down-payment with a reservation to help remove some of the uncertainty that the present reservation system creates for manufacturers. 

[Point353]

If Bachmann, Kato and (to a certain extent) Micro-Trains can bring a continuing stream of new products to market without resorting to a reservation or pre-order system - let alone down payments - why can't other companies function the same way?

[wcfn100]

If Bachmann, Kato and (to a certain extent) Micro-Trains can bring a continuing stream of new products to market without resorting to a reservation or pre-order system - let alone down payments - why can't other companies function the same way?

Bachmann and Kato do virtually no names and doesn't MTL still have standing monthly orders?

Jason

[Point353]

Bachmann and Kato do virtually no names and doesn't MTL still have standing monthly orders?

What is it that you want Kato to make?

Do the MTL standing orders give the dealers any advance notice so that they can pick and choose what they are going to receive for any given month?

[Rossford Yard]

Apparently, we just don't agree on what is a problem.  When airlines and hotels "bump" people to whom they have given reservations, that is a problem.  For both the people who got bumped and then for the company that bumped them, because of the negative publicity and even legislation to deal with the aggravation that was caused.  So, that kind of behavior does have negative consequences in the contexts that you mentioned, as well as in the N scale manufacturing world.  So, I do not see those things as non-problems that somehow excuse the problems that I discussed in my post.

I am surprised that I did not get any negative responses to my thoughts about making a small down-payment with a reservation to help remove some of the uncertainty that the present reservation system creates for manufacturers.

Perhaps we do.  Or, we have a different tolerance for things that don't go our way....I am quite used to that, LOL.  And, frankly, for all the complaining about missing out on pre-orders, I cannot think of one time when I haven't found said item later on EBay or train show, even in the occasional LHS when traveling.  So, I haven't found pre-ordering system to be a problem for me.

But, more seriously, it is accepted that hotels and airlines will book to 105% or so of capacity, based on historic no show rates for that flight/room and from time to time a few people get bumped.  I don't find that much different than MRR mfgs. who put our reservations with the implied knowledge that if they don't get "X" orders for one of the oddball roads they suggest, in an effort to serve far ranging parts of our market, they will cancel planned production.  Perhaps there is no penalty to them, but they are so small, a financial penalty (above and beyond the reputation loss, which is probably substantial, if you look at sales numbers for the bigs (and consistents) and the also rans (BMann, etc.) IM seems to be sort of a middle ground there.

And, I took some heat for saying this a few years ago, but given my imagined financial struggle and labor of love most mfgs have, if someone complains that they don't have the consistent wage to confidently place an order at pre-order time, and then later may be struggling when it shows up on EBay, I feel for them, but of am of the opinion that those consumer struggles are beyond the scope of what the mfgs can reasonably be expected to handle.  Or, put another way, does any system stop us from wanting more than we can afford at any given time?

I agree with you that modelers should be willing to put down a deposit on odd ball units, and for the record, I would think the IM SD38-2 would qualify.  I would, but for some modelers, it would be difficult (see above) and for others a chicken/egg situation.  "Well, you cancelled X on me before, so I don't trust you with my $5-25 now." 

However, in general, as MRR declines, I see the mfg/modeler relationship sort of devolving to a co-op arrangement of sorts where we realize our needs/wants are so specialized, we sort of buy in to many new and specialized projects.  Maybe the historical societies would be part of that, I don't know.   Maybe that's just me, but I think it will turn into a true "cottage industry" at some point in the future.

[JoeD]

Quantities are based on sales history and volume.  We get a good quantity of orders from customers but most are from dealers who have standing orders for cars each month.  There is a bit of Kentucky windage in choosing a production number regardless.

No Max at all nor any restrictions on what we put in a box.  Once production is underway we can make as many as we need...only the expendable materials make any difference really...running out of ink or plastic (that never happens thankfully) 

Lots and lots of locks   Friday's are dark here in production and thats when I go shopping for great deals on overflow or excess inventory   Actually we have our own internal script called Micro Bucks awarded to employees for good work or taking showers at regular intervals (Atlas Paul would benefit from this program i suspect) .  Those are used to offset the internal pricing for employees.  Being Italian I have my own Micro Buck Laundering black market operation and that helps clog my closet at home even more

Joe

Joe,

You might not want to answer this, but given so many express a desire not to pre-order, how do you anticipate how many extra to make? Sounds like gut feel.  I would guess its a bigger issue with new tooling (like the SW1500 vs. re-running a box car) Of course, there is always the second run if sales are unexpectedly great.

Similarly, we know there are minimums (usually said to be about 300) but are there any max quantities, due to shipping numbers (like using multiples of a 24, 36 or 48 case box) or max number before its time to clean up a mold, paint screens, etc.? Does that every once in a while lead to shortages or over runs? Or, is it possible to run say, 4291 of something if that is what actual orders plus estimated sales without pre-orders dictates?  Would seem like tech would allow more flexibility than in the olden days, but again, not sure, which is why I ask.

And lastly, how many locks do you put on that warehouse where the extras are stashed to prevent some 1:161 thefts by over zealous N scalers?

[Rossford Yard]

You get employee discounts?   Where can I apply for my dream retirement job?  More seriously, I did watch your MT factory tour DVD, and somehow got the impression that not everyone there was a model railroader.  Would be cool if that were a job criteria!

Well, if they forget to shower regularly, maybe they aaaarrrreeee model railroaders...... I think there have been threads on that, usually under the title of LHS Trolls, or similar.  Or, the factory floor just gets pretty hot.

I recall John Armstrong lobbying for wider aisles, but only for girth...maybe he was too polite to offend that portion of us who are a bit less clean than other.

Thanks for the answer!

[Point353]

Quantities are based on sales history and volume.  We get a good quantity of orders from customers but most are from dealers who have standing orders for cars each month.  There is a bit of Kentucky windage in choosing a production number regardless.

No Max at all nor any restrictions on what we put in a box.  Once production is underway we can make as many as we need...only the expendable materials make any difference really...running out of ink or plastic (that never happens thankfully) 

Did anything in particular limit production of the new TTX container well cars?
They're not impossible to find, yet, but they did seem to disappear from a couple of the major e-tailer's sites rather quickly.

[JoeD]

Did anything in particular limit production of the new TTX container well cars?
They're not impossible to find, yet, but they did seem to disappear from a couple of the major e-tailer's sites rather quickly.

Not that I am aware of.  We had to anticipate demand and may have underestimated it.  Given all the grousing about us doing that car you would have thought we only would sell a dozen or so...got cleaned out the first day and then some.  Next releases I'm sure we will bump up quantities.   Also as I have advised before, check with us at the factory if your dealer is out and says he can't order any more.  We get returns from time to time or are able to put up more cars from excess production.

Cheers

Joe

[p51]

I refuse to pre-order - and there is not one single thing I have not been able to locate and buy - ever...

I’m into other stuff besides trains, and one of them is sci-fi. Most of the stuff made for and by fans is pre-order by nature. I don’t go that way. Sure, it’s usually some guy working in his basement, but they don’t seem the grasp the concept of risk, investment and reward if the product is good.
I miss out on a lot of stuff in that area of interest, but I never lose money, unlike many friends of mine who’ve pre-ordered something and paid, then later get told that it just didn’t pan out, their money is gone and if they want to pay for a lawyer, they’re welcome to do so (which isn’t worth your while if the amount was low enough and I think these people know that)…

[Point353]

Also as I have advised before, check with us at the factory if your dealer is out and says he can't order any more. 
We get returns from time to time or are able to put up more cars from excess production.

Good to know that - will keep it in mind for the future.

[CBQ Fan]

I just feel that if you are going to ask me to preorder you should feel some obligation to deliver your products timely.  Some companies do an excellent job while others suffer greatly.  I am not talking a few weeks or even a month or two, but year plus delays with little to no communication on what is happening or the even better shame on you nscalers message about low interest in a particular product.  I realize it is an art and not a science but some companies could learn a lot from others.

[mu26aeh]

Did anything in particular limit production of the new TTX container well cars?
They're not impossible to find, yet, but they did seem to disappear from a couple of the major e-tailer's sites rather quickly.

If anyone is looking, my LHS has 1 of each number on the counter as of 1PM today when I was there.