Athearn N Scale Survey

[sirenwerks]

I'm a married teenage girl with a college degree whose household income is $500,000+ a year.
I never enter real information.

I am not sure what everyone is afraid of revealing.  You don't sign your name to it. 


And Athearn might learn that they have a finite time to take our money before we die, so it might want to start producing crap...

[Shaggy170]

Didn't Amtrak have some CF7s as well?

Amtrak got some in the trade for SDP40F's (SDP40Fs to SF, CF7 and rebuilt EMD switchers to Amtrak, cant remember the exact numbers). Amtrak and KCS i think were the only class 1's to get CF7s. Most went to new shortlines, some leasers, and scrappers I think. Need to find my CF7 book to know for sure.

Would love to see a CF7 in N scale. Though I do have one of Rangust's kits that has been sitting on the workbench forever that I still need to do. We will see which I get first, Athearn's or the kit, my money is on the kit.

Top 2 for me were CF7 and MP15AC. Hopefully one of those gets done in the near-ish future.

[peteski]

Amtrak got some in the trade for SDP40F's (SDP40Fs to SF, CF7 and rebuilt EMD switchers to Amtrak, cant remember the exact numbers). Amtrak and KCS i think were the only class 1's to get CF7s. Most went to new shortlines, some leasers, and scrappers I think. Need to find my CF7 book to know for sure.

Would love to see a CF7 in N scale. Though I do have one of Rangust's kits that has been sitting on the workbench forever that I still need to do. We will see which I get first, Athearn's or the kit, my money is on the kit.

Here are couple of those Amtrak CF7s. Photo taken by me on  June 1990 at the Amtrak's Northamption St. facility in Boston. Ugly beasts, but unique.

[Spades]

I wouldn't scoff at an N scale MP15AC, even if it negates my last unique kitbash.

Especially with SP details. 

[mmagliaro]

I always hoped that a meteor would tilt the Earth off its axis one day, and Athearn would resurrect the Roundhouse Pullman Palace cars (the ones with the round-topped windows), and do them in N.  But I guess that wasn't a choice in the survey... Ah well.

[thomasjmdavis]

I always hoped that a meteor would tilt the Earth off its axis one day, and Athearn would resurrect the Roundhouse Pullman Palace cars (the ones with the round-topped windows), and do them in N.  But I guess that wasn't a choice in the survey... Ah well.

I still have the HO ones I bought about 1970 in a box in the garage.  Sentimental value.  I would definitely buy a set if they were to be released in N.

It makes no sense to me that the Overton (34') cars were the big sellers in N. The Overland (the 50' cars) are much nicer (I do have a set of those), and have a broader prototype application. But the palace cars represent what is arguably the height of the carbuilding art, and I would think that, especially if they were RTR, they would sell to collectors as well as prototype modelers. AND (bonus!) would be the perfect excuse for someone to bring out an Atlantic (4-4-2).

Personally, I would also be fine with kits- IF they come with a body not riddled with 3D artifacts.

[JMaurer1]

A quick search on Flee Bay shows that the MDC and Athearn version of the 34' and 50' passenger cars have a silly BIN price of $50 a car and over $150 for a 4 car set. Athearn, are you paying attention? While BIN prices really don't mean anything, I didn't find ANY that were at auction. Luckily, I have some of both cars from the dark ages and don't really need any more (but need does not equal want)...

Still would buy 3-5 MT-4s...maybe more

[peteski]

A quick search on Flee Bay shows that the MDC and Athearn version of the 34' and 50' passenger cars have a silly BIN price of $50 a car and over $150 for a 4 car set. Athearn, are you paying attention? While BIN prices really don't mean anything, I didn't find ANY that were at auction. Luckily, I have some of both cars from the dark ages and don't really need any more (but need does not equal want)...

Still would buy 3-5 MT-4s...maybe more

In my observation it appears that model train manufacturers do not base their model re-release schedule on prices of eBay sales of the model.  Unfortunately.

[u18b]

I feel you're probably correct.   But ebay could be a form of market research in its own way.

For the flip side..... Kato Mikado's got fairly cheap for a while and maybe have only fairly recently gone back up.
Not a good sign in the near term that there is a high demand.

On the other hand...... anybody see what Atlas Shay's are going for?  Good grief.

[JMaurer1]

I would think that FleaBay is a pretty good reference point, if only the MRFs choose to use it. If something is actually selling (not just a bunch of idiots asking stupid prices that are never sold) for high prices, it means that the demand is there...that there are modellers who want something bad enough to pay too much for it. Example: Concor's turbine (that they have threatened to rerelease for 15+ years. Not the best detail (what's up with those handrails?) and while it runs okay, it is not DCC friendly, but they regularly go for $150-200+. Heck, I've been trying to get a turbine tender for awhile now and they alone go for well over $50-75 (for the wrong tender with molded on details and huge handrails). So how much more does that make a DCC or DCC friendly version with better details worth? $250-350? I know that Scale Trains made one (not the veranda) and they had no problem selling out and now even theirs are going for...well currently there aren't even any listed for sale. Just saying, it's a good resource where if something is SELLING for high prices, it should show that there is a demand.

[thomasjmdavis]

I would think that FleaBay is a pretty good reference point, if only the MRFs choose to use it. If something is actually selling (not just a bunch of idiots asking stupid prices that are never sold) for high prices, it means that the demand is there...that there are modellers who want something bad enough to pay too much for it. Example: Concor's turbine (that they have threatened to rerelease for 15+ years. Not the best detail (what's up with those handrails?) and while it runs okay, it is not DCC friendly, but they regularly go for $150-200+. Heck, I've been trying to get a turbine tender for awhile now and they alone go for well over $50-75 (for the wrong tender with molded on details and huge handrails). So how much more does that make a DCC or DCC friendly version with better details worth? $250-350? I know that Scale Trains made one (not the veranda) and they had no problem selling out and now even theirs are going for...well currently there aren't even any listed for sale. Just saying, it's a good resource where if something is SELLING for high prices, it should show that there is a demand.

Well, yes and no.
While indeed there are some number of collectors willing to spend big bucks on out of production items, the question that designer/importers (they don't own factories, they are just importing Chinese production) ask nowadays is "are there 2000 people willing to pre-order a given product at a premium price?" (2000 just being a guess based on something a manufacturer once told me at a train show.)  One of the reasons stuff goes for what it does on eBay is that the collectors want to have one within their lifetimes, and aren't willing to wait for a better product to come along 1 to 10 to Never years from now. And Con-Cor has it's collectors- no doubt about it- because there is someone out there buying Veranda's painted for ATSF to pull their "Blue Goose" scheme passenger cars, and their other fantasy painted stuff.

As to the silly buy it now pricing- the fact that it is priced that way is not an indicator of whether it sells for that.  I've sometimes watched stuff for 6 months, waiting for the seller to get realistic. It never sells and just gets re-listed week after week. And whoever the seller is just assumes that someday someone will come along and pay that price.  But our designer/importers does not have that luxury.

[peteski]

Exactly what Tom stated so well. EBay is not a good market research toom for either which model to re-release next, or how to price it.  And guess what?  Manufacturers know that.

[nickelplate759]

...
As to the silly buy it now pricing- the fact that it is priced that way is not an indicator of whether it sells for that.  I've sometimes watched stuff for 6 months, waiting for the seller to get realistic. It never sells and just gets re-listed week after week. And whoever the seller is just assumes that someday someone will come along and pay that price.  But our designer/importers does not have that luxury.

Before eBay (like in the 1970s and 1980s) this seemed to be the old Red Caboose pricing model (when it was upstairs and full of dusty old stuff at crazy prices).  I've no idea what the current Red Caboose business is like.

[Maletrain]

I can see both sides of the eBay market demand debate.  Sure, if a few people are buying a few over-priced items, then that is not a good predictor of demand for those items.  But, if there is consistently high bidding for a substantial frequency of sales, that is an indicator of real demand. 

If you look at something like the old Overland 50' open platform cars, they have been selling consistently at ever-higher prices since they were discontinued many years ago, and even before that, they sold out when Athearn took them over and offered only RTR versions.  There is also nothing like them even mentioned for future production by any vendor.  And, they fit the small layout - tight curve radius modelers about as well as freight cars.

So, it is strange that Ahearn or somebody else has not decided to bring these out again.  If companies can keep making "Big Boys" against stiff competition, why can't they make small passenger cars against no competition?  The recent 60' steel passenger cars that Atlas recently started producing sold out so fast that even some reservations did not get filled on the first production run, and they are doing more runs.  Those were basically enhanced versions of the old Bachmann "Shorty" passenger cars, with more body types than Bachmann ever produced.  And, those "Overland" 50 footers would probably sell well even as kits, because they are easy to assemble.  Unassembled, they are even easy to paint.

So, I agree that this seems to be a part of the market that obviously has substantial demand and inexplicable neglect by the vendors.

[peteski]

So, it is strange that Ahearn or somebody else has not decided to bring these out again.  If companies can keep making "Big Boys" against stiff competition, why can't they make small passenger cars against no competition?  The recent 60' steel passenger cars that Atlas recently started producing sold out so fast that even some reservations did not get filled on the first production run, and they are doing more runs.  Those were basically enhanced versions of the old Bachmann "Shorty" passenger cars, with more body types than Bachmann ever produced.  And, those "Overland" 50 footers would probably sell well even as kits, because they are easy to assemble.  Unassembled, they are even easy to paint.

Unless multiple manufacturers were to release some model (like a Big Boy) at the same time, I don't see those models as being in stiff competition.  All the companies are making money, and the only unhappy parties are the modelers griping that they would have rather seen another model produced.  I admit that I'm sometimes one of those gripers.  But the model companies are not losing money.

So, I agree that this seems to be a part of the market that obviously has substantial demand and inexplicable neglect by the vendors.

I think the apparent neglect is only in the eyes of the modelers pining from some specific model which has not been re-released.  They are probably a very small subset of the overall model market.  While I'm sure some poor planning, mistakes, or oversights are made by the marketing departments of model companies, I think generally they know what they're doing.

For example I'm not happy that the Rapido Comet cars were basically only available for those who reserved them, and once released, they sold out in days.  I would love to get few more, but they are gone.  Why didn't Rapido make more, and since they were instant sellout, why didn't they announce a re-run yet?  Seems like a no-brainer to a modeler like me who would love to buy more of them.

But as I have been informed by the people in the business, producing a run of previously released models is not as easy as just telling the factory to make more.  There are limited number of production slots available (since there are only a handful of model manufacturing facilities in China). Someone like @bbussey might be able to give some more details on what is involved in the logistics of running another batch of models.  Back in the day when each model manufacturer owned their own manufacturing facilities, it was mcuh easier for them to control what and how many models to produce.  Not so much anymore.