HOGTRAINZ Intermountain Update

[CBQ Fan]

IMHO this thread should be locked by a moderator, as it does not reflect well on the Railwire. 

I'd say about half of the posts in it are from the same bunch of guys who seem to hate Intermountain.  OK; fine, cancel your reservations or don't buy from IM, but stop whining about it.  Unless you were foolish enough to pay in advance, you haven't lost any money in the transaction.  And that doesn't even take into account that this is a niche industry which is still suffering the effects of the Chinese factory collapse, followed by the Pandemic. 

I have bought a lot of IM products over the years.  I have always been happy with my purchases, with Intermountain's Customer Service policies, and with their visually well-organized website. 

MH

I think you have misunderstood the post and maybe the forum altogether. The frustration is the inability to purchase their products. The disappointment of being excited to see an announcement only to realize it will never be produced. Wondering if other manufacturers decided not produce something do to IM announcing the same item. If they hated IM they wouldn’t care.

[jjb62556]

If you think this is disappointment , try being a Minnesota Viking fan. I'm with Mark...This has been beaten enough. I would like more Intermountain engines..{SD38} but if it's not made, the sun will still come up tomorrow. I will have to kitbash some...you know...Modelling

[CBQ Fan]

Lol, if you guys think this thread should be locked I think you may be disappointed by this forum.  This is pretty benign for dissecting a topic down to the molecular level.

[MVW]

If you think this is disappointment , try being a Minnesota Viking fan.

Ha! Had to learn to let go of the Vikings way back in the '90s. They spoiled far too many Sundays (and usually several days after).

I still watch 'em (most of the time; didn't watch a single snap this year). I just don't care how they do. In fact, back when Denny Green was coaching, it was more fun when they lost just to see what kind of high-speed bullspit Denny would spew afterwards.

Jim

[mark.hinds]

I think you have misunderstood the post and maybe the forum altogether. The frustration is the inability to purchase their products. The disappointment of being excited to see an announcement only to realize it will never be produced. Wondering if other manufacturers decided not produce something do to IM announcing the same item. If they hated IM they wouldn’t care.

Nah; I think I understand it, and some of the posts are not constructive, IMHO. 

The inability to purchase products is SFAIK typical of the way much of the industry currently operates.  They suggest something, and if there are enough pre-orders, they may produce it; otherwise there would be no need for pre-orders.  Often stuff doesn't stay in stock long.  This is different that it was 40 years ago, when there was much less variety, but supply was fairly predictable. 

[Philip H]

The inability to purchase products is SFAIK typical of the way much of the industry currently operates.  They suggest something, and if there are enough pre-orders, they may produce it; otherwise there would be no need for pre-orders.  Often stuff doesn't stay in stock long.  This is different that it was 40 years ago, when there was much less variety, but supply was fairly predictable.

And why doesn't N Scale deserve both greater product availability and predictability?

I'd add that one of the frustrations with IM - which some people have a small amount of money on since not all vendors do preorders for free - is precisely that people have pre ordered in a quantity that's allegedly enough to generate production, and then product never comes.  Sure we didn't fork over all the cash up front, but IM never asked us to.  There's a track record here, and its not helped by IM's lack of transparency or massive cancellations of things we have demonstrated we WANT to buy. if IM doesn't want to do N scale anymore they should be honest and say so.

And we'd do the same thing to Atlas.  Or Kato.  And have done to Walthers. Among others.

[Rossford Yard]

If you think this is disappointment , try being a Minnesota Viking fan. I'm with Mark...This has been beaten enough. I would like more Intermountain engines..{SD38} but if it's not made, the sun will still come up tomorrow. I will have to kitbash some...you know...Modelling

Or any sports team, really.  In a 32 team league, any team has about a 3% chance of winning it all, or once every 32 years.  Only a few teams beat the odds for a while, like the 49's in the 80's, Patriots now, etc.  And, I'm not sure they didn't or won't fall back to earth in succeeding years.  Of course, in both sports and MR products, the low probability only makes actually succeeding (in MR case, owning a product) more than makes up for it, no?  LOL.

[Rossford Yard]

And why doesn't N Scale deserve both greater product availability and predictability?

I'd add that one of the frustrations with IM - which some people have a small amount of money on since not all vendors do preorders for free - is precisely that people have pre ordered in a quantity that's allegedly enough to generate production, and then product never comes.  Sure we didn't fork over all the cash up front, but IM never asked us to.  There's a track record here, and its not helped by IM's lack of transparency or massive cancellations of things we have demonstrated we WANT to buy. if IM doesn't want to do N scale anymore they should be honest and say so.

And we'd do the same thing to Atlas.  Or Kato.  And have done to Walthers. Among others.

Simple solution, order from the numerous vendors who do.  Agree that IM should be transparent, but in reality, they are more transparent than most (see my recent post on Frank A always being open on sales numbers) I'm sure their position is, "We want to do more N scale, if conditions are right."  Very grey area, I think.

As to the main question of "why doesn't N deserve both greater product availability and predictability?" the answer is, as always, market size.

Actual stats are hard to come by.  In 200o, the MRIA and MR had this to say (I recall also reading it when the NMRA came to Dallas about that year)

Model Railroad market is $900 million per year. That's almost a billion dollars.
Average hobbyist spends $964 per year, and has a household income of $66,530.

If you extrapolate the numbers, you get almost a million model railroaders in the United States. I presume this includes casual model railroaders if there is such a thing.  That seems high to me.  Back then, MR had a circulation of about 250,000 (now under 80,000) and it was presumed that every magazine was shared/read by about 2 model railroaders, putting total MR enthusiasts at 500,000.  We might still have close to 500K model railroaders, but most aren't reading MR anymore.....

In 2008, surveys showed about 66% in HO, 16% model N, 8% in O.  With the exception of unit train type cars (grain hoppers, etc., which sell about 90% of HO) everything else in N sells about 25-40% max to HO (16/66=24%)  At one point, we thought N was growing as a scale, but stats didn't verify that as a continuing trend.

In better news, 2013 the Hobby Manufacturers Association announced today that MR sales grew 3 percent in 2012 at $1.31 billion retail.  I saw only one more study, showing total sales at the wholesale level stayed constant, even during recessions at about 40% of retail, i.e. $425 Million.  Some mfgs are reporting big boosts this year owing to COVID.  Overall, sales are steady or declining after accounting for inflation.  And, many of those are replacing old non-sound locos with newer, better versions. (which actually should bode well for IM and their offerings)

Short version, in N, we still face the issues that the money just isn't there, and if you want an answer, as they say, just follow the money.

[Philip H]

"We want to do more N scale, if conditions are right."  Very grey area, I think.

As noted a lot of us have tried to create those conditions for them through preorders and keep getting burned by Vaporware.  Its the point of this whole thread.  You shouldn't have to guess - years after the fact - if something you preordered that was supposedly a go will actually show up. That's been a HUGE IM problem, and made worse by buying the Red Caboose and Centralia car shops tooling and then sitting on some of the most popular models. 

Take the SD40-2.  I have a grey one (hunted down after the fact) and a stripped shell to paint in KCS white.  I don't want the Belle SD40-3s.  But I'd plop down for three whites and another grey.  Except I can't.  Because they aren't being run.  And I'm not alone.

[wazzou]

The only thing I'll add is this;
The way business has been done, it is very likely, if not a certainty that other manufacturers have steered clear of possibly producing models that have been previously announced or that pre-orders have been accepted for by Intermountain.
This is not for the good of the hobby.                                                 

[Englewood]

I disagree. IM announced Tier 4 Gevos and Dash 9s, then Scaletrains came along and announced them, too. Look at the number of SD70ACes on the market. FVM, BLI, and Kato. And they all also make the GE ES44ACs and variants. How many GG1s and E units are out there? Every time a new one is announced, people complain that they're already made by everybody else. Manufacturers have shown time and again that they'll make the same models as the competition. If IM's announcements are keeping other manufacturers from making the same model, it's probably more likely that it's something that's not expected to be a big seller, like the GP10s.

[JMaurer1]

I'm not an IM hater. I love the IM rolling stock I have and would rather have my IM cab forwards that run too slow (never thought I would ever complain about an engine that ran too slow as opposed to way too fast but then too fast can be fixed with DCC). I just wish that if they are going to announce something, they produce what they announced...even if it is only enough to fill the preorders and done in a timely manner. Especially when it keeps other mfrs from actually making that same or similar item.

Way back in the day I made body molds for R/C race cars. When I started there was a mythical list of what the other MFRs were supposed to be working on and you were to steer clear of these bodies. It seemed like anything remotely aerodynamic was already 'taken' by one of the existing companies (and in most cases, they would say they were working on, say, a Camaro and that would block ALL Camaro's because you couldn't be sure which one they were getting ready to make). As it was, very few body molds actually were made and some of what were made were terrible looking/handling because someone had it 'on the list'. And once one came out that was bad, it was thought that all of that style of bodies were bad (Camaro body is aerodynamically slow so all Camaros must be slow). We ended up producing bodies of cars that were maybe a one off just so we could make something (nothing like 20 people running a car that there was only one ever built). This pre-order to determine interest reminds me of this. It keeps other MFRs that are ready and willing to make something from making it because you don't want to be second to producing something and find out that the demand has already been satisfied (like milk reefers for example).

[Rossford Yard]

As noted a lot of us have tried to create those conditions for them through preorders and keep getting burned by Vaporware.  Its the point of this whole thread.  You shouldn't have to guess - years after the fact - if something you preordered that was supposedly a go will actually show up. That's been a HUGE IM problem, and made worse by buying the Red Caboose and Centralia car shops tooling and then sitting on some of the most popular models. 

Take the SD40-2.  I have a grey one (hunted down after the fact) and a stripped shell to paint in KCS white.  I don't want the Belle SD40-3s.  But I'd plop down for three whites and another grey.  Except I can't.  Because they aren't being run.  And I'm not alone.

I'm a bit confused. In PP1 you claim to have preordered to help them make the most of their system.  In PP2 you say you bought after the fact.  I understand many of us can't (or shouldn't) pop for 4 sound locos at a time at almost $1000, but did you pre-order at all?

I agree we shouldn't have to guess for years, at least in theory or ideal worlds.  I think we are victims or our (and society's) continually rising expectations.  I recall an MR cartoon from the 1960-70's where the mfg prez tells his foreman/production guy, "Orders for the "X" (a steam loco) have been strong for a year, maybe we ought to start thinking about making it."  Unfortunately, the basic economics of MRR mfg haven't changed much (at least not for the better post 2000) since that cartoon, so they fail to meet our expectations.

N scale isn't certainly a coherent market for us or them, as Englewood notes.  I am of the opinion that IM is just hesitant, for whatever reason, to make a big financial mistake, and of course, who could blame them, even if other mfgs. do seem to take bigger risks.  But I agree that they should figure out their risk before making an announcement, but they kind of do, waiting until the pre-order period is over, and then declare project X as a bust, for the good of both modelers and other mfgs who might fill the void.  Like you, I can't imagine any advantage to them in keeping orders open for years before even thinking about things.  But, I doubt they do, they probably just don't update their website often enough.

[CBQ Fan]

IM didn’t recover fully from the factory shutdown and struggled ever sense. They have slowly made their way back with HO and a smattering of N. I wonder if they have lost out to other companies gobbling up a finite amount of production capacity in China. There have been several companies make inroads in N.  Rail Smith, while not a major player yet has made notable progress and I would argue have had more success with it than Walthers! 

[jbonkowski]

I should imagine this would affect Centralia Car Shops as well; the last product of theirs that I recall was a run of cabooses.

This doesn't necessarily follow. The Hogtrainz announcement is repeatedly very specific about cancelling N scale locomotive reservations. It has nothing to say about N scale freight or passenger cars.

Jim