Era Modeling by Age Group?

[JMaurer1]

Born in 1961, model the NWP in the early 1950's (so I can have steam and diesel, the NWP was 100% diesel in 1953). Influenced by childhood memories and just enjoying modeling.

[Maletrain]

Regarding the "median" and "mean" (average) values of the modeling periods of interest: I don't think those have any significance or useful meaning. 

As you pointed out in your explanation of the difference between a median and a mean for the same sample group, those numbers do not really have to correspond to any real part of the sample.  For example, say that nobody is interested in modeling 1980, but there are equally large groups of modelers who model 1950 and 2010.  The mean (average) of the period is 1980, but nobody is really interested in that period.  Worse, the addition of one modeler to eithe group has little effect on the mean, but it swings the median from 1950 to 1980 or back the other way, depending on which era the additional person chooses to model.

The only era statistics that matter are cluster analysis results.  For instance, divide the time frame into decades, or better yet, divide into time periods that were dominated by specific attributes of the railroads themselves, such as steam, transition, Amtrak, Conrail, "modern", etc.  There could be some overlapping of periods such as Civil War, Depression, World War I, World War II, etc. as another parameter.  This type of cluster analysis would be much more informative to manufacturers who are trying to figure out what people will really buy - far better than suckering them into producing for a median or mean date that is not really of interest.

[Rossford Yard]

By the Numbers

I'll take this break in the action (...wow!...) to post refreshed stats:

Responses: 68
No direct experience of modeling period: 62%
Transition (1945-1959): 37%
Decline (1960-1980): 34%
Influenced by childhood memories: 18%
Modern: 16%
Average/Median Age: 52/54
Average/Median Era: 1970/1965

Notes:

For the several of you expressing multiple eras, I took the middle weighted by your indicated strongest preference.

For the few who might not know the difference between "average" and "median", "average" is the total divided by the number of entries, kinda "just a number". Take two 80-year-olds and a 20-year-old as a group, you get an average age of 60, which means nothing, there are no 60-year-olds in the cohort. Median is the middle of the pack - half are above, half are below. That the median birth year and median era are both 1965 blows my mind.

Back to "conventional wisdom"... first, the reliving childhood theory is mostly bunk. <20% is not significant. And then there's modern, which is now down to just 1/6 of the sample. So, explain to me why so many manufacturers are pursuing this market.

The best observation so far came from my wife Robyn today, over lunch. Telling her about the survey, without prompting she said, "Well, duh, they're reliving their childhood experiences." At that point I laughed and said, "Not so fast!", explaining the responses didn't support this conclusion. After some back-and-forth, she offered, "OK, they are modeling periods when railroads were interesting, with lots of variety." Bingo.

Thanks for crunching those numbers!  I considered doing it, but you beat me to it.  Also considered a poll as suggested early, but really don't know how to have done that.

As to your wife's comments, I guess we all probably fell in love with railroads in general in our childhood (even if we didn't really realize it until later) and we may have had differing places to watch trains.  For me, lived near a CNW commuter/freight line in Chicago area, but watched trains with Grandpa in Toledo on vacations.  I admit, the B and O solid blue, usually dirty from 1960-1972 when Chessie came in was a bit of a turnoff (as was them being merged into the C and O!)  But, I never really liked the CNW either, so go figure.  Mostly, I liked diesel variety, and gravitated to SP circa 1970 because they had the most locos available.  So, yes, liked my version of "most interesting era."

Will admit I considered Chessie (1973, a year after SD40-2 replaced F units, but close enough to be justify buying both) and I did like the mix of blue and Chessie yellow in consists, etc.  Also considered Conrail for variety, but never pulled that trigger, and even BN, just after merger for both F units and a variety of paint schemes.

I guess individual meanings of "most interesting era" could be another thread when this one concludes......

[C855B]

Regarding the "median" and "mean" (average) values of the modeling periods of interest: I don't think those have any significance or useful meaning.

Yes they do. It serves my purpose to badger ScaleTrains.com about doing Rivet Counter GP35s!       Seriously... you're right, not significant in the small sample, I ran the calcs for grins and am fascinated by the multiple convergences in the mid-1960s.

You're also right about partitioning the responses into modeling eras. There is lots of discussion among European modelers, especially Germans, trying to establish "epochs" roughly corresponding to the periods you suggest. Aside from the Teutonic tendency to quantize along strict lines, their job is easy because the railroads were government-run for most of their existence, where the entry and exit of administrations were opportunities to overhaul things.

There have been debates about dividing US railroading into comparable epochs. The only "hard" eras I can define are transition and decline, the former being post-WW II to the end of steam in 1959, the latter immediately following, with consolidation, abandonments, bankruptcies, tech advances and the introduction of MBA-driven business models, all culminating in 1980 with Staggers. Other dividing points are blurred, such as your suggested Amtrak and Conrail demarcations. "Modern" is fairly amorphous, although personally I lump anything after 2000 into this pot, especially with the dominance of GE over EMD/PR, and the rapid decommissioning of 4-axle mainline power and 2nd-generation diesels.

I would honestly like to know what is driving the mostly new companies to produce "modern". Just because of the "hasn't been done before!" marketing angle? I sure as heck could use a passel (hi, Pete! @peteski ) of decently-done mid-1960 diesels. Atlas and Kato tooling is long in the tooth versus what the new makers are doing, for example. Where are the U-Boats? And for transition, why are Baldwin and Lima ignored altogether, barring the Atlas VO-1000? These should be staples of Eastern transition-era modeling.

[peteski]

You're also right about partitioning the responses into modeling eras. There is lots of discussion among European modelers, especially Germans, trying to establish "epochs" roughly corresponding to the periods you suggest. Aside from the Teutonic tendency to quantize along strict lines, their job is easy because the railroads were government-run for most of their existence, where the entry and exit of administrations were opportunities to overhaul things.

Trying?  The have been doing that for quite some time. Even manufacturers and dealers use the Epoch designations.

[CRL]

I wonder if some of the guys doing the trend analysis are insurance actuaries.

Actuary - someone who is really good at math but lacks the people skills required to be an accountant.

Just kidding...



Maybe.

[Bill H]

Born in the late fourties.
Model the late fourties- early fifties strictly because I like steam and early diesel
Model the B&O because I am from the Balt'mer area and crossed the OML twice a day hoping I had to wait at the crossing...

Cheers,
Bill

[Blazeman]

, I wonder if the sampling is too small or TRW is just not a reliable sampling for the model railroading market in general,
DFF

This could be another survey item.  Are we or aren't we?  Do members here spend more $ than the average bear (younger guys may not comprehend)?

Does Mike break out the market into segments....serious modelers...like TRW people; Ntrak people who will make purchases to run long trains (Kato passenger car sets of a dozen or more, 75 car coal drags, reefer car expresses or grain trains, the newest items just because); those guys at train meets we don't want to be around, but marvel at the wad of bucks they whip out to make large purchases; Christmas layouts; lone wolf types we don't know exist or limit interaction to a few? Any other "types?"  Are there magazine people the manufacturers aim ads at? Do suppliers jump in at web sites, especially M-R-H? Maybe the Atlas and MT posters here can share insight?

[nuno81291]

Born 1991. Model the roads that existed when I was an infant. Lots of the industrial lines closed down before I hit 10 so sort of going for a nostalgia based on very very early memories. Backdate it back a bit so I can run some interesting guilford transition schemes when they formed out of the BM MEC ST and DH. Would model more present day if I had the funds for all the extra motive power, oh and space to do a layout justice. Current HO carnation is withering away while I wonder if I really built what I want to see.

[learmoia]

Born. 1979

Modeling late 80s/early 90s..
And loosely modeling 60s and 70s in vintage N scale.

[pedro]

Interesting thread. I’ll play along to add to the numbers:
Born in 1973, modeling the Ann Arobor Railroad in 1965.

I chose that out of a nostalgia for my native state of Michigan, and the era out of an appreciation of “60’s color” fed by Morning Sun books and Emery Gulash films. I narrowed that down based on equipment in service on the AA: new GP35 road power and Alco switchers still in original Wabash schemes. ‘65 was also the first year the M.V. Viking ferry was in service, which is my favorite of the AA boats. This is also pre-merger 60s so (most of) the “old roads” are still independent: NYC, PRR, C&O etc. This plays heavily in AA ops as there were numerous crossings with interchanges with these roads.

[C855B]

I wonder if some of the guys doing the trend analysis are insurance actuaries.

Nope. Just a retired technology middle manager who made a career out of noticing trends and fabricating data to match the observations.     

[DKS]

I would honestly like to know what is driving the mostly new companies to produce "modern".

Likely due to the tendency of modelers to model what they see--not a universal given, but a strong tendency nonetheless, especially for younger modelers. I also see the distinct possibility that there probably won't be much in the way of new steam-era locos or rolling stock on the horizon, and at some point soon may stop altogether.

I wonder if the sampling is too small or TRW is just not a reliable sampling...

Yes.

 

[C855B]

Does Mike break out the market into segments....serious modelers...like TRW people; Ntrak people who will make purchases to run long trains (Kato passenger car sets of a dozen or more, ... u.s.w.

No, beyond the scope. The overriding assumption is TRW is not a representative cross-section of the MRR or N scale masses. I simply noticed something peculiar/interesting when the birth year versus model era data accumulated.

Likely due to the tendency of modelers to model what they see--not a universal given, but a strong tendency nonetheless, especially for younger modelers. I also see the distinct possibility that there probably won't be much in the way of new steam-era locos or rolling stock on the horizon, and at some point soon may stop altogether.

Maybe, but I don't see it that way, that's akin to the "dying hobby" model. The trend is pointing to modeling preferences "back when railroads were interesting". It might take exposure to published history (books, videos) for the young'uns to appreciate what they missed, as a few have already stated.

[CRL]

Nope. Just a retired technology middle manager who made a career out of noticing trends and fabricating data to match the observations.     

Fabricating data?