How do we go beyond "Reservations?"

[bbussey]

For me you are sort of on the right track. If a manufacturer announces something I want and has a record with me of good quality stuff that gets released when promised I'll be more likely to bite. If it's questionable quality or a newbie in the game, less so.

With a reservation-based system, the incentive is there for the manufacturer to "get it right" so that the consumer has confidence in committing in advance. So given the assumption that a manufacturer has a strong track record, I don't see a better alternative to help avoid over-producing or releasing a product that shouldn't be released. I'd certainly be interested in hearing any suggestions.

[thomasjmdavis]

With a reservation-based system, the incentive is there for the manufacturer to "get it right" so that the consumer has confidence in committing in advance. So given the assumption that a manufacturer has a strong track record, I don't see a better alternative to help avoid over-producing or releasing a product that shouldn't be released.

Brain,

I will take the opportunity to offer suggestions, none of which is new, and probably do not apply to you or your business, as you seem quite well aware already, but let this serve as a compilation of what I am seeing on this and similar threads.

Based on all the comments I've read, there are 3 sources of complaint about reservations and pre-orders (for my purposes, the distinction between these is that you can cancel a reservation, while a pre-order is a definite commitment).  The first of which you are addressing in your comment. And you are quite correct, the incentive to deliver good quality product is there.  And you are also quite correct (if I read your implication correctly) that it is in everyone's interest to NOT make models that won't sell, because it is a waste of time and resources and a small manufacturer can be put out of business by one bad call.  Based on the few ESM models that I own, you personally "walk the walk" and clearly are committed to producing high quality models and I doubt very much that you would let the stuff out the door if it did not meet your standards, that are higher than mine- so I can buy ESM products with confidence.  However, I would argue that the incentive to make a good product is even higher if manufacturer is going to end up stuck with a lot of unsalable inventory if the product is a lemon. But I understand that is an academic argument, and would increase the risk to manufacturers and importers.

So, the list of 3 objections I see frequently (the one that applies to me most is #3), along with some solutions that have been suggested along the line, that I thought were pretty good, but I don't claim to have originated.

1. Committing to a product no one has seen yet. What recourse do modelers have when the product delivered falls well below expectation, such as the BLI stock car? Caveat emptor does not apply when you have no opportunity to inspect the product before purchase.  The buyer is completely reliant on the manufacturer or importer's reputation, but have no ready recourse when the product falls below the company's previous standard.  This causes particular difficulty for people when they are being charged a premium price for what they have been led to believe is a premium product.
* Potential solution (my opinion)- do as much market research as possible in the design phase.  Scratchbuild or RP a model of the prototype and get reviews from modelers at train shows, Railwire, etc.- this is where manufacturers can find out that the board spacing is too wide, people want slats, not solid sides on the their stock cars, the ladders are to fat, or "if you made the SP version instead, I would buy 10." In the long run, manufacturers need to come up with a way to satisfy customers who do not believe the model lived up to the pre-order advertising- a refund or return policy.

2. Delivery times.  It seems commonplace to quote a "best case scenario" delivery date, and too many importers and manufacturers do not keep customers apprised of revisions.  I have never received a product before I expected it, but frequently well after.  There are a couple projects that have been delayed so long that I can't remember if I put in a formal pre-order for them or not- and if I did, is the company I ordered them from still in business? (that latter actually happened to me back in the 1980s- the hobby shop I ordered from closed before the promised production run happened).
* Potential solution (my opinion)- try to determine a probably delivery date based on previous performance by the factory in Asia or other suppliers, average shipping time, etc.  Be proactive in letting people know about delays- send an email out to everyone on the pre-order list, in addition to posting on the website.  Provide a reason for the delay and a revised estimate where possible.

3. For a variety of reasons based on disposable income, variables in cash flow and personal preference, some folks don't like to make a financial commitment to a product that may not be produced, and if it is, will be delivered at an uncertain date.
* Potential solutions (my opinion)- Financial incentives do help- give a discount for advanced orders, and do what can be done to prevent having the model on sale at 20% less than the pre-order price a couple weeks after delivery (think Walthers here- they have practically trained us NOT to buy their products in advance, because they will be in the sale flyer in a couple months).  It makes many folkds grumpy if they pay $100 for a model that they see listed on MBK for $85 two days after they accept delivery.  Getting a better handle on delivery times would also help a lot as many folks who like to model do not have big savings accounts, and having 3 or 4 orders all show up at the same time is hard on the cash flow.  Or just at the wrong time of year.  December 26, just paid for Xmas and have a big heating bill, is not a good time to receive a big order that was due in June.

[CBQ Fan]

I answered your question accurately.  Don't get bent out of shape because you don't like the answer.

Having 14 items listed as expected to ship 1st quarter isn't up to date nor accurate. Over the years Atlas has had stretches where they update it regularly, and I have seen multiple products arrive at hobby shops that haven't been updated for months. I would find it odd that other model train companies would have access to information about production in China that atlas would not.

[CBQ Fan]

Brain,

I will take the opportunity to offer suggestions, none of which is new, and probably do not apply to you or your business, as you seem quite well aware already, but let this serve as a compilation of what I am seeing on this and similar threads.

Based on all the comments I've read, there are 3 sources of complaint about reservations and pre-orders (for my purposes, the distinction between these is that you can cancel a reservation, while a pre-order is a definite commitment).  The first of which you are addressing in your comment. And you are quite correct, the incentive to deliver good quality product is there.  And you are also quite correct (if I read your implication correctly) that it is in everyone's interest to NOT make models that won't sell, because it is a waste of time and resources and a small manufacturer can be put out of business by one bad call.  Based on the few ESM models that I own, you personally "walk the walk" and clearly are committed to producing high quality models and I doubt very much that you would let the stuff out the door if it did not meet your standards, that are higher than mine- so I can buy ESM products with confidence.  However, I would argue that the incentive to make a good product is even higher if manufacturer is going to end up stuck with a lot of unsalable inventory if the product is a lemon. But I understand that is an academic argument, and would increase the risk to manufacturers and importers.

So, the list of 3 objections I see frequently (the one that applies to me most is #3), along with some solutions that have been suggested along the line, that I thought were pretty good, but I don't claim to have originated.

1. Committing to a product no one has seen yet. What recourse do modelers have when the product delivered falls well below expectation, such as the BLI stock car? Caveat emptor does not apply when you have no opportunity to inspect the product before purchase.  The buyer is completely reliant on the manufacturer or importer's reputation, but have no ready recourse when the product falls below the company's previous standard.  This causes particular difficulty for people when they are being charged a premium price for what they have been led to believe is a premium product.
* Potential solution (my opinion)- do as much market research as possible in the design phase.  Scratchbuild or RP a model of the prototype and get reviews from modelers at train shows, Railwire, etc.- this is where manufacturers can find out that the board spacing is too wide, people want slats, not solid sides on the their stock cars, the ladders are to fat, or "if you made the SP version instead, I would buy 10." In the long run, manufacturers need to come up with a way to satisfy customers who do not believe the model lived up to the pre-order advertising- a refund or return policy.

2. Delivery times.  It seems commonplace to quote a "best case scenario" delivery date, and too many importers and manufacturers do not keep customers apprised of revisions.  I have never received a product before I expected it, but frequently well after.  There are a couple projects that have been delayed so long that I can't remember if I put in a formal pre-order for them or not- and if I did, is the company I ordered them from still in business? (that latter actually happened to me back in the 1980s- the hobby shop I ordered from closed before the promised production run happened).
* Potential solution (my opinion)- try to determine a probably delivery date based on previous performance by the factory in Asia or other suppliers, average shipping time, etc.  Be proactive in letting people know about delays- send an email out to everyone on the pre-order list, in addition to posting on the website.  Provide a reason for the delay and a revised estimate where possible.

3. For a variety of reasons based on disposable income, variables in cash flow and personal preference, some folks don't like to make a financial commitment to a product that may not be produced, and if it is, will be delivered at an uncertain date.
* Potential solutions (my opinion)- Financial incentives do help- give a discount for advanced orders, and do what can be done to prevent having the model on sale at 20% less than the pre-order price a couple weeks after delivery (think Walthers here- they have practically trained us NOT to buy their products in advance, because they will be in the sale flyer in a couple months).  It makes many folkds grumpy if they pay $100 for a model that they see listed on MBK for $85 two days after they accept delivery.  Getting a better handle on delivery times would also help a lot as many folks who like to model do not have big savings accounts, and having 3 or 4 orders all show up at the same time is hard on the cash flow.  Or just at the wrong time of year.  December 26, just paid for Xmas and have a big heating bill, is not a good time to receive a big order that was due in June.

Well said.

[bbussey]

1. Committing to a product no one has seen yet. What recourse do modelers have when the product delivered falls well below expectation, such as the BLI stock car? Caveat emptor does not apply when you have no opportunity to inspect the product before purchase.  The buyer is completely reliant on the manufacturer or importer's reputation, but have no ready recourse when the product falls below the company's previous standard.  This causes particular difficulty for people when they are being charged a premium price for what they have been led to believe is a premium product.
* Potential solution (my opinion)- do as much market research as possible in the design phase.  Scratchbuild or RP a model of the prototype and get reviews from modelers at train shows, Railwire, etc.- this is where manufacturers can find out that the board spacing is too wide, people want slats, not solid sides on the their stock cars, the ladders are to fat, or "if you made the SP version instead, I would buy 10." In the long run, manufacturers need to come up with a way to satisfy customers who do not believe the model lived up to the pre-order advertising- a refund or return policy.

Most N scale manufacturers do show pre-production pilot models before the actual model is released, whether at trade shows or on their website or in magazine ads.  True, the K-7 stock car was not previewed before release. CORRECTION - The BLI K-7 pilot model was shown at various trade shows, as I remember I saw the sound-equipped version at one and was told that it was a pre-production and that the non-sound would have open slats, which I reported on here at the time.  But the overwhelming majority of the N scale models introduced within the last decade have seen pre-production literature released beforehand.

2. Delivery times.  It seems commonplace to quote a "best case scenario" delivery date, and too many importers and manufacturers do not keep customers apprised of revisions.  I have never received a product before I expected it, but frequently well after.  There are a couple projects that have been delayed so long that I can't remember if I put in a formal pre-order for them or not- and if I did, is the company I ordered them from still in business? (that latter actually happened to me back in the 1980s- the hobby shop I ordered from closed before the promised production run happened).
* Potential solution (my opinion)- try to determine a probably delivery date based on previous performance by the factory in Asia or other suppliers, average shipping time, etc.  Be proactive in letting people know about delays- send an email out to everyone on the pre-order list, in addition to posting on the website.  Provide a reason for the delay and a revised estimate where possible.

You're at the mercy of the contractor.  I've been fortunate for the most part.  Two of the three contractors I've dealt with have open lines of communication and keep you informed of any delays, which are the rare exception rather than the norm.  The third contractor was a nightmare and caused severe financial harm by taking seed money and not delivering what was contracted for.  The bottom line is that it's in the best interests of the manufacturer to keep the consumers aware of when product is scheduled to arrive, so any scheduling delays are the result of the contractor 95% of the time. You can't update a delivery schedule if you have no idea of when the product is going to be ready for pickup by the broker for container loading.

3. For a variety of reasons based on disposable income, variables in cash flow and personal preference, some folks don't like to make a financial commitment to a product that may not be produced, and if it is, will be delivered at an uncertain date.
* Potential solutions (my opinion)- Financial incentives do help- give a discount for advanced orders, and do what can be done to prevent having the model on sale at 20% less than the pre-order price a couple weeks after delivery (think Walthers here- they have practically trained us NOT to buy their products in advance, because they will be in the sale flyer in a couple months).  It makes many folkds grumpy if they pay $100 for a model that they see listed on MBK for $85 two days after they accept delivery.  Getting a better handle on delivery times would also help a lot as many folks who like to model do not have big savings accounts, and having 3 or 4 orders all show up at the same time is hard on the cash flow.  Or just at the wrong time of year.  December 26, just paid for Xmas and have a big heating bill, is not a good time to receive a big order that was due in June.

The manufacturers have to be careful with discounts because they cannot undermine their dealer-base (or distributor-base), which comprise the significant bulk of the sales.  If the dealers stop buying, you're done as a manufacturer.

The ideas are thought-out.  Keep them coming, that's how we hit on something that works for all parties involved.

[Rossford Yard]

I have participated in this sporadically, but find myself wondering if the real question is "Why would we want to go beyond reservations?"

We know its strong points, and occasional weak points, which seem to vary among mfgs, which we can't control.

We also know the strength/weakness of the old "sit on the shelf and collect dust forever" marketing method.  I mean, there was a reason all those blue boxes sat on shelves forever.  Some still do. I recall hearing that 80% of all items are sold within the first month they are produced anyway, so there was clearly little benefit in making more just in case someone wanted it.

As for marketing pizazz, I visited a few Chicagoland LHS this week on a business trip.  While both were well stocked, it was clear some was very old, seen before, and not very exciting to look at.  Old stuff kinda draws you in, in hopes you find that one treasure, but in reality, its just a lot of odd named box cars.
 
We also know that if they under produce something, there is always the second, third and fourth runs, if required.  And, EBay, Train Shows, etc. if we miss something initially.

Has anyone stated the clear benefits (in a concise one or two sentences) of changing the reservation system, enough that it would actually be worth doing?

Reading this, I have seen justifications for better and more transparent communications, and agree that is something the mfg could do in our tight knit MRR community.  But, as to the system itself?  Tell me, what did I miss?

Granted, there is a little provocation intended in this post, but for the most part, I do feel this way.

[CBQ Fan]

Ok here is a good example:  Intermountain F7's last month were shown as pushed out to September, now they are showing May.  So is that next month or May of next year?  With the number I have on order it would be sure nice to know.  I either have a ton of F units arriving next month or I have a lot of cash to spend.  If you tell me September and in 30 days move it up to May that is not consumer friendly if you expect a pre-order. I guess this really only boils down to an issue if you have a tight budget or a very large budget each month.

[Philip H]

I guess this really only boils down to an issue if you have a tight budget or a very large budget each month.

I don't think that matters. While this MAY be more of a communications issue then a reservations issue per say, regardless of your RR budget, not really knowing when things will arrive - or if they will meet or exceed previous quality thresholds and thus be worthy of the hobby dollar- is my main issue with a reservations system.  If you set aside $$ in your September budget for those F's, depending on your approach, you may well not have the fundage in May to make the purchase because the May money is "dedicated" to something else.  That leaves the dealer in a lurch WRT his/her stock, and puts you and the dealer at odds even though neither of you is really at fault.

As to the question of whether we SHOULD go past reservations to something else . . . until we get replicators in our homes to 3D print this stuff with really off the hook resolution . . . yeah we need a better hybrid of the old store/shelf sotck vs. reservations model.  What is that?  I have no real clue.

[CBQ Fan]

I don't think that matters. While this MAY be more of a communications issue then a reservations issue per say, regardless of your RR budget, not really knowing when things will arrive - or if they will meet or exceed previous quality thresholds and thus be worthy of the hobby dollar- is my main issue with a reservations system.  If you set aside $$ in your September budget for those F's, depending on your approach, you may well not have the fundage in May to make the purchase because the May money is "dedicated" to something else.  That leaves the dealer in a lurch WRT his/her stock, and puts you and the dealer at odds even though neither of you is really at fault.

As to the question of whether we SHOULD go past reservations to something else . . . until we get replicators in our homes to 3D print this stuff with really off the hook resolution . . . yeah we need a better hybrid of the old store/shelf sotck vs. reservations model.  What is that?  I have no real clue.

I agree with your point!  I know these are small companies, but if you are going to list a production and delivery schedule you should feel obligated to keep it up to date. I know certain members here disagree with me, but the simple fact is several companies really struggle to keep this information up to date.  All you have to do is observe over a 3-6 month period and you see my point is accurate. My guess is that it is a lack of resources, aka manpower, that leads to the lag and I am not unsympathetic to this.  That is why I said before I would rather have no info than out of date info.  For me I spend roughly the same amount each month.  If I sit on funds based on stale info, it is money I am not spending somewhere else. 

[Scottl]

. . yeah we need a better hybrid of the old store/shelf sotck vs. reservations model.  What is that?  I have no real clue.

I'm pretty sure this is called eBay.

[Missaberoad]

you should feel obligated to keep it up to date. I know certain members here disagree with me, but the simple fact is several companies really struggle to keep this information up to date.

So what should you put if the company its self has no more info then is posted? Just change it to a tbd? Im sure if they had a concrete date or new estimate they would update it...

Also I think people would be upset if the dates kept changing every month (ie imrc sd40-2) seems like a no win situation.

[Dave V]

So what should you put if the company its self has no more info then is posted? Just change it to a tbd? Im sure if they had a concrete date or new estimate they would update it...

Also I think people would be upset if the dates kept changing every month (ie imrc sd40-2) seems like a no win situation.

It is unfortunate that the way most model trains are produced these days that companies cannot predict with even reasonable certainty when products will be delivered.  Whether the choice to manufacture in China is the least of all evils or not, the unpredictable nature of delivery is a direct result.  I would be much happier with the reservation system if I knew to a 75% certainty which quarter it would arrive.  I feel like the problem isn't the preorder itself but the "when the hell will it fall out of the black hole and hit my credit card" problem, to say nothing of the lead time itself.  Fortunately I had no outstanding preorders when I switched to HOn3 other than the Mike McGratten car.

[CBQ Fan]

So what should you put if the company its self has no more info then is posted? Just change it to a tbd? Im sure if they had a concrete date or new estimate they would update it...

Also I think people would be upset if the dates kept changing every month (ie imrc sd40-2) seems like a no win situation.

I think part of the issue is that they are too stretched for time to update their sites with dates.  I find it hard to believe that these companies have absolutely no idea what is coming until they open the boxes upon arrival in the states. I have a background in international transportation with production, sales and financing products that have unit prices in the hundreds of thousand dollar range so I know a little bit about what I am talking about.  Give us preorder drop dead dates, give us an in-production confirmation, then based on production and travel time give us an expected ship to dealer date. 

[bbussey]

So what should you put if the company its self has no more info then is posted? Just change it to a tbd? Im sure if they had a concrete date or new estimate they would update it...

Also I think people would be upset if the dates kept changing every month (ie imrc sd40-2) seems like a no win situation.

Bingo, on both counts.

There is no strategic advantage for the manufacturer to sit on release date information.  The common-sense play is to post any concrete release date information available in order to maximize demand.  As it is, it's unlikely that the "firm" dates will ever be more precise that the release quarter, given that product may be delayed by factors beyond the contractor such as the freight carrier, customs, destination port and weather.  The last ESM well car release sat in New York City on the container ship an extra two weeks or so because the port hadn't gotten around to unloading the LCL product on the ship.  And that was with the shipment departing China on time and going through pre-customs to avoid delays there.

[bbussey]

I find it hard to believe that these companies have absolutely no idea what is coming until they open the boxes upon arrival in the states.

No one said we don't know what's coming.  When it's coming is the issue.  You find out what when you get the shipment manifest prior to container loading.  Once you know it's in the container (or at least in possession of the broker) and what ship the container is being transported on, you have a general idea of when it will arrive based on the ship's schedule.


These also are not big-ticket high-volume items, so they don't take priority regarding shipping schedules.