How do we go beyond "Reservations?"

[bbussey]

One factor in the equation not discussed here is the collapsing distribution network.  Not only are distributors dwindling, but for the most part have moved away from buying for stock to buying to cover reservations.  So the manufacturers are left with the inventory burden that used to be held by the distributors.  To compensate, the manufacturers lower production quantities and solicit reservations.  We'll be moving to a reservation system later this year with the X65 boxcar debut and the next batch of X58 boxcars, because getting stuck with overstock is not conducive to putting out new product.

Also, we have certain production minimums we have to commit to in order to have the contractor produce the product.  IMRC generally announces a number of roads and car numbers in every release, and the production run still gets made if some of the options are canceled due to poor reservations.  That is an option we are considering as well.

With the distribution net quickly fading, I don't see the reservation system disappearing anytime soon if ever.

[crrcoal]

I don't mean to derail the thread but what roads are you running in the next X58 release? Thanks!

[mu26aeh]

IMRC generally announces a number of roads and car numbers in every release, and the production run still gets made if some of the options are canceled due to poor reservations.  That is an option we are considering as well.

This is something I brought up, and is something that I think causes modelers to question what they need.  Say they announce 12 roads with 6-12 numbers per road.  Knowing how IMRC works, a modeler will possibly spread say 6 cars across 3-4 different roads.  If they only announced 4-6, with maybe 3-6 numbers and knowing additional runs will be announced, they might order more with each road, within each announcement. 

[bbussey]

Looking at that from the other side ... If the company announces four schemes with three road numbers each, Just enough to meet their production minimum, and they don't get enough reservations on one of the schemes to justify producing it, it puts the entire release in jeopardy. As it is, there still is a leap of faith. A scheme doesn't need to be 100% reserved to be green-lit. But there must be confidence that the run will sell at least well enough to make a profit.

I don't mean to derail the thread but what roads are you running in the next X58 release? Thanks!

That will be announced over the summer, with the X65 roads/schemes. Possibly at the Pittsburgh convention if the X65 tooling remains on schedule.

[Philip H]

@bbussey - I can certainly respect the decisions that drive you and your manufacturing bretheren. I was also not aware of the distributor issue.

that said I'm still not a fan of reservations.  Take the IMRC SD40-2.  Sure I want two or three in each KCS variant - they are not (sadly) doing the white as far as i know - but with absolutely no intel on the mechanism, several loco issues that have  . . . . differing mechanical success, and a host of road names I don't want, getting on board for reservations just wasn't in the cards when they were first announced.  Now that we've seen them and the do run fairly well - and have decent details, sure, I'm in.  I have not ever had similar issues with ESM products, so if you went reservations I'd be more inclined to give you one.  There's a subtle but important distinction there.

[bbussey]

Understood.  I never said the reservation system is ideal, or desired from either a manufacturer or consumer point of view.  But with the current landscape as it is, I don't see a viable alternative.  I tried it the last couple of years with just announcing the release a couple of months before availability, and the end results definitely were better when we had the advanced reservations.  Fortunately, from a manufacturing standpoint, production minimums are not as high as they used to be.  But it's still easy to miscalculate on whether or not a project will be profitable if not careful.  I'm also losing my primary distributor this year (to well-deserved retirement), so it is now more critical to get the numbers right.

[Philip H]

Do you think this is a more critical issue for small and mid-sized manufacturers?

[coosvalley]

If the distribution network is falling apart, it seems like a good opportunity for someone(s) to step in and fill the void. Maybe MFR's should start working together to help this along. Necessity is the mother of invention.

Although, we have needed something better than pre-orders, and that hasn't happened

 I never pre-order, and doubt I will. If the model is well established, I might consider it. If they want a pre order for some vaporware model, forget it. Recently, the SD40-2 come to mind,they just don't look "right" to me, and I'm very glad I didn't jump on board(YMMV). Also, the Turbines. At those prices, EVERY one should run flawlessly out of the box, IMHO (I've literally bought automobiles that ran for years for less than one of those)...I do not get "burned" or stuck with a lousy model, simply because I do not preorder...

Something better than preorders is sorely needed...I will continue to buy models, but I'm not likely to ever preorder...I wonder how MFR's can factor that in???...

[JoeD]

still not clear on what this "magical" alternative is to pre-order...

Joe

[Missaberoad]

still not clear on what this "magical" alternative is to pre-order...

Joe

[JoeD]

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Ok..now I can get on board with that.  LOL   

JOe

[coosvalley]

still not clear on what this "magical" alternative is to pre-order...

Joe

That's the point, we do need something better, but what? 

[atsf3751]

I think it is well understood that manufacturers can no longer make 10,000 of every model, set them on the shelf and wait for the flood of orders to come in. They have to carefully plan how many models to make and in what roads to make them. A wrong guess can be catastrophic. I do not see any alternative to taking reservations at this time. If you don't reserve it then you run the risk of having to scramble for it later. I do make advance reservations with companies that have a good track record of delivering quality products.

I will occasionally reserve a product from a new company because they are announcing something I have wanted for a long time, an example would be a low nose RSD-15. I would reserve a couple of them sight unseen.

Having been in N Scale since 1971 I am used to having to work on cars and engines I get, can't go to the LHS and look over their stock any more. Take the Turbines for example, those are extremely complex hand made models and to guarantee absolutely 100% perfect engines would require a very extensive QC and would raise the price considerably. I have three of them and each one required a small amount of tweaking, nothing that was deal breaking. They all run and look great now.

I have gotten engines that sit too high on the chassis and that, in most cases, can be fixed. I replace all Atlas Accumate couplers, all Bachmann boxing glove couplers, most Athearn McHenrys. My point is that I don't expect perfection. I like the fact that manufacturers are looking at new, and previously, unavailable models and I realize the risk involved. I will support them by pre-ordering. Occasionally I get a lemon but that is very, very rare. We don't really need another SF, UP or SP F7.

[djconway]

My beef with reservations is cases like the BLI stock car.  I committed to a 4 pack of the stock cars based on their previous runs of locomotives,  box cars, and hoppers.
The stock car was / is a piece of trash, my 1973 vintage AHM has better detail.

[CBQ Fan]

My other frustration is this example: Atlas has 14 first quarter items that were supposed to ship and they are all still listed as first quarter. We are into the second quarter now and no updates and out of date information. At 3-5 releases per month they are a full quarter behind.  I think timely updates for preorders is a fair trade!