Oroville Dam Crisis Could Affect UP/Ex-WP Line

[Chris333]

For me in Ohio I find it strange that none of the videos even show the dam. I looked it up on G.maps and was like oh that is big.

[wazzou]

Construction Video.

[basementcalling]

For me in Ohio I find it strange that none of the videos even show the dam. I looked it up on G.maps and was like oh that is big.

3

Tallest US dam.

People, even professionals, always seem to underestimate the power of moving water.

[nkalanaga]

No, you can't run a generator without either a load or a governor.  Most hydroelectric generators don't have governors, so the rotation speed is controlled by the interaction of load and gate setting.  Opening the penstocks without a load would allow the generators to rotate freely, and they would overspeed, almost certainly damaging them, and possibly causing them to disintegrate from centrifugal force.

There may be diversion tunnels in the base of the dam, separate from the hydroelectric plant, but I don't have any knowledge of that.  Oroville Dam is a little outside my usual territory in the Northwest.

[C855B]

Apparently UP feels it's safe to resume limited operations on the Shasta line now:

  https://www.up.com/customers/announcements/customernews/generalannouncements/CN2017-14.html

[sirenwerks]

I don't think I'd want to be a crew traveling below the dam right now, thoughts of Johnstown PA would be running through my head.

[Smike]

Things may start to take a turn for the worst. 

Current Facts:
Use of the damaged spillway at 100,000 CFS the lake is dropping approximately 8’ per 24 hour period.  (They will be shutting it down for a few hours soon to inspect the erosion to see if they can continue dumping water down it at this rate)
The pipes which release water through the Hydro generators (max 14,000 CFS) are closed due to debris. (Its true they can only flow water when they are able to generate and deliver electricity
The diversion tunnels which would allow draining the lake in the dam proper by passing the hydro, were damage years ago and are unusable.
Lake level on 2/1  = 851’
Lake Full level (which was achieved on 2/12 )  = 901’  (increased 50’ with 4” falling over 12 days)
Next Major rain system to arrive Wed Eve. (Forecast are anywhere from 5-11” but the huge factor will be how much of it falls as snow vs rain in the mts around the watershed)  (HUGE wildcard) 
Estimated Lake level by Wednesday 2/15 eve = 877’  (a buffer of only 24’ which is about ½ of what they had going in the last major rain event)

So if less rain falls and more falls as snow, and there is no substantial change in erosion in the damage spillway, they will be able to make it through this.

If more rain than snow falls, and they are forced to pull back releasing water in the only way they can right now (via the damage spillway) then the lake is going over the emergency spillway. We now know this spillway was eroded very badly at 15,000 CFS in just one day. (Far from the designed capacity of 350,000 CFS)

They are scrambling to shore up the emergency spillway, but I think this will not be able to mitigate this if they have to use it in earnest.

These prospects are downright freighting and really speak to the inadequate tools that are at the disposal to avert all out failure of the spillway. (Becoming more likely, but Mother nature will ultimately decide that)

Ton of info can be found here: www.drroyspencer.com

[jagged ben]

Things may start to take a turn for the worst. 

Current Facts:
Use of the damaged spillway at 100,000 CFS the lake is dropping approximately 8’ per 24 hour period.  (They will be shutting it down for a few hours soon to inspect the erosion to see if they can continue dumping water down it at this rate)
The pipes which release water through the Hydro generators (max 14,000 CFS) are closed due to debris. (Its true they can only flow water when they are able to generate and deliver electricity
The diversion tunnels which would allow draining the lake in the dam proper by passing the hydro, were damage years ago and are unusable.
Lake level on 2/1  = 851’
Lake Full level (which was achieved on 2/12 )  = 901’  (increased 50’ with 4” falling over 12 days)
Next Major rain system to arrive Wed Eve. (Forecast are anywhere from 5-11” but the huge factor will be how much of it falls as snow vs rain in the mts around the watershed)  (HUGE wildcard) 
Estimated Lake level by Wednesday 2/15 eve = 877’  (a buffer of only 24’ which is about ½ of what they had going in the last major rain event)

So if less rain falls and more falls as snow, and there is no substantial change in erosion in the damage spillway, they will be able to make it through this.

If more rain than snow falls, and they are forced to pull back releasing water in the only way they can right now (via the damage spillway) then the lake is going over the emergency spillway. We now know this spillway was eroded very badly at 15,000 CFS in just one day. (Far from the designed capacity of 350,000 CFS)

They are scrambling to shore up the emergency spillway, but I think this will not be able to mitigate this if they have to use it in earnest.

These prospects are downright freighting and really speak to the inadequate tools that are at the disposal to avert all out failure of the spillway. (Becoming more likely, but Mother nature will ultimately decide that)

Ton of info can be found here: www.drroyspencer.com

Thanks Smike.  One gets more substantive info on the railwire than from the professional media!  I agree it is very worrying.  Evidently they weren't able to predict what the flow would be after this last series of storms, or perhaps just weren't paying close enough attention.    Of course, it seems they also thought they could let 400,000cfm flow over the auxilliary spillway, which it is now obvious was not properly designed for that and probably can't be used at all if it's possible to avoid.  Like you, I can't believe they didn't build that thing down to the bedrock.  Back in the 60s they just clearly counted on it never having to really be used.  And the didn't want to pay for fixing it 12 years ago either.  Oops.

One thing I did read somewhere is that the snow level is expected to drop a couple thousand feet, so that would help.

I don't think I'd want to be a crew traveling below the dam right now, thoughts of Johnstown PA would be running through my head.

I had to look that up (although it rang a bell, I think I'd heard of it once before.)   Funny that at Johnstown a railroad runs through where the damn used to be, whereas at Oroville a dam runs through where the railroad used to be. 

[flight2000]

I'm currently without service at Sierra Army Depot due to this washout in Doyle, CA.  Believe it happpened on Sunday morning and UP crews are working around the clock to get it shored up and back online.  When I drove by this afternoon, they have a good portion of the dirt replaced.  Still lot's of work ahead before service is restored.

Brian

[Smike]

Mother Nature is the wild  card still. Hopefully @jagged ben said, snow levels drop which means more falls as snow then rain.

This is the current National Weather Services Rain Fall prediction for the next 7 days. That is a huge area of 5"-12" over the Feather River Basin. That could also cause huge mudslides on the Feather River route. 

[Smike]

Here is the inflow chart. Anything above 100,000CFS raises the lake if they keep the outflow at 100K.

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/jspplot/jspPlotServlet.jsp?sensor_no=3382&end=02%2F15%2F2017+06%3A10&geom=huge&interval=15&cookies=cdec01

Here is the lake level. you can see the combination of inflow and shutting down the outflow on the damaged spillway for just a little bit raise the lake level 50' in short order.

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/jspplot/jspPlotServlet.jsp?sensor_no=3378&end=02%2F15%2F2017+06%3A10&geom=huge&interval=15&cookies=cdec01

[MK]

I'm currently without service at Sierra Army Depot due to this washout in Doyle, CA.  Believe it happpened on Sunday morning and UP crews are working around the clock to get it shored up and back online.  When I drove by this afternoon, they have a good portion of the dirt replaced.  Still lot's of work ahead before service is restored.

Brian

Man, those are some pictures!     Note to self, a potential new module in N-Trak? 

[Spades]

I'm currently without service at Sierra Army Depot due to this washout in Doyle, CA.  Believe it happpened on Sunday morning and UP crews are working around the clock to get it shored up and back online.  When I drove by this afternoon, they have a good portion of the dirt replaced.  Still lot's of work ahead before service is restored.

Brian

Brian

Looking at the photo does your vehicle have a cyclic and collective?

[peteski]

Brian

Looking at the photo does your vehicle have a cyclic and collective?

Hmm . . . he did write "drove by".  But the photos seem to tell a different story. 

[flight2000]

Nope....

Actually, the photo's were taken with a friend's DJI Phantom 3.  I can handle a real airplane, but a drone gives me fits....

The MOW guys really liked the photos and the video's allowed them to see some other damage that would have been difficult to safely access without a drone.

Cheers,
Brian