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I do admit to one area of challenge, and this covered hoppers....about the only car that *commonly* appears both in general manifest freights and also unit trains. So accounting for those is always tricky. Applying the formulas straight out tends to give me a bloated number, but then when I consider spotted cars (also above average probably given what I model) and the chances of two unit grains passing each other (a very common occurrence) then I think maybe it's not so bloated.
Jason,Keep in mind that the segment of railroad you are modeling also plays a factor.
AAR code, LO, and someone brought up they expanded it to include number of bays. So you'd have LO2, LO3, LO4 for the different # of covered hopper bays on the cards. I'd probably think of taking it a step further and have it like LO3P or LO4G for plastics or grains, respectively. Give some kind of letter designation on the end of it to indicate the type of commodity in that covered hopper,
I always do. BTW, thanks for this thread. It got me looking at my collection and I've got 40 more MTL cars to go on the block.
An unforeseen positive of this approach is that it helps you not buy every single "shiny new object" that comes to market. I've been recently unloading product from 30 years of accumulating and it is astounding how much there is. So focusing on a set roster configuration results in major budget relief as well. This holds true for motive power and passenger equipment also.
The remaining 59 reporting marks totaled either much, much fewer cars - or so few they were insignificant. And the percentage of the total by roadname didn't reflect the percentage of the national fleet, although they do seem to reflect some regional "bias" (greater percentages of New England/Northeastern region road names, but not by much). I was especially shocked at how few NYC and PRR cars (based on the % of these roads rosters compared with the national fleet at the time) appeared in our sample data.
The thing is, if one were to model a roster to these percentages and then compare the resulting trains to prototype photos, the result may be defendable as statisically "authentic" but still wouldn't look right!