Possibly no new EMD locomotives until 2017 after Tier 4 in 2015

[reinhardtjh]

An online article in the Wall Street Journal indicates that Cat/EMD won't have it's Tier 4 prime mover ready until sometime in 2017.  With the EPA requirements taking effect for deliveries of new locomotives beginning January 2015, this would seem to be a big problem for EMD.

http://online.wsj.com/articles/caterpillar-falls-behind-ge-in-locomotives-race-1405291739

Maybe not such a big deal in 2015 as most roads seem to be ordering big time this year ahead of the 2015 Tier 4 deadline, and especially from EMD (Did EMD tell them of this beforehand?).  But if they are out for all of 2016 and most of 2017 I can see Cat/EMD taking a big hit in revenues.

[Leggy]

GE doesn't have a Tier 4 solution ready and available yet either.

[reinhardtjh]

GE's is testing and they plan to have it available for building mid-2015.  EMD says theirs won't be available for building until 2017.  That's an 18 month head start GE has.

GE is already testing locomotives that comply with diesel-engine exhaust regulations that take effect Jan. 1. The company has added a pollution-reduction system to its existing locomotive engine and expects full-scale production of emissions-compliant locomotives to start next summer. "We've got units operating so we can demonstrate performance," said Tina Donikowski, vice president for GE's locomotive business.

Bold emphasis added is mine.

[C855B]

Ick. More toasters.

[Scottl]

Hey, some people like toasters.  Better than rounded blobs that all look the same 

[Denver Road Doug]

Hey, some people like toasters.  Better than rounded blobs that all look the same 

This.

[reinhardtjh]

Ick. More toasters.

Bring back the ALCo!

[Leggy]

Just a hunch but that's what the EPA is trying to get rid of isn't it? 

[Scottl]

The steam loco is the cleaner of the two in the last photo 

[Hyperion]

Maybe not such a big deal in 2015 as most roads seem to be ordering big time this year ahead of the 2015 Tier 4 deadline, and especially from EMD (Did EMD tell them of this beforehand?).  But if they are out for all of 2016 and most of 2017 I can see Cat/EMD taking a big hit in revenues.

We're buying so many partly because we just can't keep up with business and partly because we haven't been impressed with what we've seen from the builders in regards to Tier 4 locomotives so we're not wanting to buy a ton right off the bat.   The trucking industry saw this a few years ago with tens of thousands of extra trucks made and literally parked (Crete Carrier had literal fields of thousands of them around my house in Lincoln) so that the industry had reliable trucks in the face of changing, untested technology.

EMD's originally-proposed solution that I saw from them back in 2007 or so was pretty shitty.  Basically a big catalyst stuck on top the unit, complete with height clearance issues.  So they were told to go back to the drawing board.  That's put them behind the curve, but GE's solution is complex and we're not likely to sign up for all that many for the first couple years.

EMD still has a chance to pull something out their hat.  They won't get terribly far behind in the first 12-18 months as there just won't be a ton of orders going in for the new EVOs in that timeframe either.  Percentage-wise, sure, they'll lose a lot -- but overall numbers, they might lose a couple hundred sales over a model likely to sell 10,000+ in its lifetime.

[Leggy]

The biggest problem is the RRs not wanting a Urea based system, that's causing the biggest issues in getting a working and reliable system going.

[nkalanaga]

Scottl:  They didn't call Alco diesels "Honorary steam locomotives" for nothing.

I got off work at 4am in the mid 70s.  Leaving work, in downtown Pasco, WA, I could see the Lewis St. underpass under the BN from the front door.  One morning, there was a train headed north (rail east) behind a column of fire and sparks.  Since the BN had no steam locos, I chased that thing all the way to the Pasco yard, about two miles, trying not to exceed the speed limit, as the Pasco police had little to do at that time of morning.  Turned out to be an ex-SP&S C636 badly in need of some maintenance.  Judging by the noise it was definitely doing its share of the work, in spite of the less than ideal combustion.