Atlas Jan Announcements

[daniel_leavitt2000]

My issue is that the price has risen a lot without added details. It least give uss free standing grabs or a new walkway on those GP9s.

I have several GP shells that I have detailed and painted but can't run becasue they are waiting for donor chassis. I'm not spending $60-80 on a chassis.

[Wardie]

Guys, stop for just a moment and step back and look at your GROCERY bill since last August, how much more expensive has that gotten? Everything has gotten more expensive.

I deliver bread, since last august my premium line has gone up from $3.69 a loaf to $4.39, which 2 and a half years ago was under $2.99. Anybody priced Gasoline? Butter? Bacon?

I bought my pickup brand new in 2004 for $28K, same model, similarly equipped today, $45K.

In 3 years the repair rate for my delivery truck has gone from $63 an hour to $85 an hour, and that is a good rate, the dealer is up to over $100 an hour.

The C40-8W was a lot more expensive than all the other models when they came out to begin with.

[SirTainly]

March 2002 -   $6.95    Buying power - $6.95    Difference   $0
Dec 2003    -   $7.95                         $7.35                     $0.60
May/Apr2005    $7.95                         $7.54                    $0.41
Apr/May2006    $8.50                         $7.79                    $0.71
Sept 2009       $12.95                        $8.29                    $4.66

Inflation is year to year, so gets compounded, not sure if you are factoring this in, looks like you are doing off a base year?

so for the hopper

year    inflation expected price  actual price  Calc
2002    2.4%    -                     6.95
2003    1.9%    7.12                 7.95           6.95x1.024
2004    3.3%    8.10                 7.95           7.95x1.019
2005    3.4%    8.21                 7.95           7.95x1.033
2006    2.5%    8.22                 8.50           7.95x1.034
.....
etc

Would seem that this is tracking below inflation for much of this time, which I would expect as the sales recover production costs, and the profit margins increase. Atlas can take the inflationary hit to keep prices competitive.

[John]

Inflation is year to year, so gets compounded, not sure if you are factoring this in, looks like you are doing off a base year?

Thanks for the input .. I used the inflation calculator verbatim .. the methodology I used was the pricing posted for the first instance of the model I could find in the atlas announcement pages .. then went to the next version where the price changed .. I used the $$$ value of the first release as the starting point of the calculation with the value produced by the govt calculator for each successive release .. your numbers seem to track closely .. the problem with the calc is that the releases didn't always come at the end of the year, so there is probably a minor fluctuation ..

nevertheless, it does give a very slight insight into the pricing decisions made over a period of time ..

it at least gives some reality to what up to now has been speculation on our parts

[wm3798]

Unfortunately, while the crystal ball can project how prices will rise, it does a piss poor job of explaining why wages have remained stagnant or dropped precipitously for a lot of people, especially at my house.

Aside from my transition from City government to non-profit retail, every job change I've experienced over the past 5 years has involved a decline in take home pay.  That, combined with my wife and I taking turns being out of work over the past two years, has made it pretty tough to take care of the necessaries, much less the latest freight car release.

From my perspective, Atlas could announce their next release at a 400% increase, and it wouldn't matter to me.

Lee

[John]

From my perspective, Atlas could announce their next release at a 400% increase, and it wouldn't matter to me.

I can appreciate your economic situation .. but you have managed to enjoy the hobby with a lot less investment than others seem to need. There is something to be said for scratching out a few shekels and converting that into the layout you have. It embodies "modeling" in my mind .. We don't always need the latest and greatest engine, in multiples of 10 .. or even 2 ...

[m301]

Well I don't like doomsayers but I have a feeling these price increases are going to be very hard to swallow for a lot of people.   If I were one of the boys at Atlas I would be consulting with experts about moving new production to another location.   We have already priced the kids out of the hobby and now we are working on doing the same to the adults.  Soon we will be asking whatever happened to model railroading? 

  I agree whole heartedly. In fact I'd go as far to say Model Railroading may be lose to dying after the manufacturers get done abusing the post war generation.

  Most of the current generation is lost to the computer and console gaming industry. The hobby we currently belong to will be a special type of art when were gone.

[Hyperion]

So, perhaps I missed something on the Atlas Forum (almost never check it anymore), but what happened to the GP38/40s that are in this month's Model Railroader ad?  They say they'll be announced the first week of January, but nothing yet.  Really want to get a couple of those but no one's even taking preorders yet because, I presume, they haven't been assigned part numbers yet.

[FrankCampagna]

Guys, stop for just a moment and step back and look at your GROCERY bill since last August, how much more expensive has that gotten? Everything has gotten more expensive.

I deliver bread, since last august my premium line has gone up from $3.69 a loaf to $4.39, which 2 and a half years ago was under $2.99. Anybody priced Gasoline? Butter? Bacon?

I bought my pickup brand new in 2004 for $28K, same model, similarly equipped today, $45K.

In 3 years the repair rate for my delivery truck has gone from $63 an hour to $85 an hour, and that is a good rate, the dealer is up to over $100 an hour.

The C40-8W was a lot more expensive than all the other models when they came out to begin with.

My grocery bag has gotten more expensive. Therefore, I can buy fewer trains.

Frank

[GaryHinshaw]

Here's an interesting price example: the 53' Evans boxcar, which has been around in original tooling since 2000, and has seen several re-releases since.  The data:


Date             Undec         Low*           High*            CPI*
10/2000      8.00 (1.00)    9.95 (1.00)     11.95 (1.00)       1.00
12/2002      8.00 (1.00)    9.95 (1.00)     11.95 (1.00)       1.04
09/2004      8.95 (1.12)   10.95 (1.10)     10.95 (0.92)       1.09
12/2005      9.95 (1.24)   12.95 (1.30)     12.95 (1.08)       1.12
06/2007      9.95 (1.24)   13.95 (1.40)     13.95 (1.17)       1.20
10/2008     12.95 (1.62)   17.95 (1.80)     17.95 (1.50)       1.24

* Notes:
- The prices are MSRP as quoted on the Atlas site.  The first two releases had tiered pricing for complicated paint schemes.  I quote both the lowest and highest price.
- The numbers in parentheses show the price change since 10/2000, as a ratio.  These can be compared directly to the CPI, which I normalize to 1.00 in 10/2000.

Conclusions:
- Generally, their prices have risen much more than inflation, especially starting in 2008.  This is consistent with John's hopper example.
- The undec model held pretty close to the CPI until the last release.
- The decorated models are harder to analyze because they dropped the tiered pricing after 2002, but they have tended to rise faster than the undecs.  I tend to agree that we pay something of a premium for small runs of many paint schemes, but that is not the whole story.

I don't pay much attention to Atlas locos, but I love their freight cars and I wish they'd get that d@mn coil car out the door. 

-gfh

[tom mann]

I second the motion for atlas to release the coil car, but since others are producing cars with proper ride height and body mounts, I'm less looking forward to it.  I'm just not into the extra work anymore, with two kids now. ;D

If you want to not pay a lot for freight cars, check the HO clearance section on MBKs site.

[Mark5]

Looking at inflation indexes can be misleading. I think one of the key factors that may be affecting Atlas cost structure is the fact that the Yuan has increased in value against the dollar about 25% since 2005. There may be other factors as well.

Here's a chart on the value of the Luan vs the US Dollar:(be sure to click on the 5year view)
http://www.google.com/finance?hl=en&client=firefox-a&hs=yHG&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&channel=s&biw=1280&bih=606&q=CURRENCY:CNYUSD&ei=Ozw4TaSQA4L78AbR4cSbCg&sa=X&oi=currency_onebox&ct=currency_onebox_chart&resnum=1&sqi=2&ved=0CCgQ5QYwAA

We had it really good for a while, sorta like when gas was at about $1 a gallon or less in the late 1990s.

Luckily, no "must haves" for me in the Jan announcements.

Mark

[lock4244]

So, does that mean we'll be seeing Hecho en Mexico m ore over time? Peso is pretty weak (1.00 USD = 12.1052 MXN) against the greenback...

[amato1969]

I'm just not into the extra work anymore, with two kids now. ;D

No doubt!  Two active kids definitely puts a crunch on the modeling time (or at least shifts it to late-night hours). 

  Frank

[DKS]

I can appreciate your economic situation .. but you have managed to enjoy the hobby with a lot less investment than others seem to need. There is something to be said for scratching out a few shekels and converting that into the layout you have. It embodies "modeling" in my mind .. We don't always need the latest and greatest engine, in multiples of 10 .. or even 2 ...

This is probably the most reasoned remark in the whole thread so far. Discussions such as this sometimes leave me wondering if Railwire is a "forum for modelers" or a "forum for accumulators"? I'm not being critical of anyone or anything in particular, so please don't flame me; it's merely a somewhat facetious observation.